Price trend:

Last week, the silicomanganese market surged before falling back. The price peaked at around 6,050 RMB/ton, and northern factories had hedging opportunities and relatively smooth production. In southern regions, costs remained high, making sales difficult. As of January 9, inventory pressure was not significant, and raw material procurement was proceeding at a normal pace, without widespread buying activity. According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the market price of silicomanganese (FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia at the end of last week was around 5,500-5,600 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,572.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the beginning of the week.

Influencing factors

Supply side: In Inner Mongolia, some newly added production capacity that started up earlier was gradually coming online, while some plants were undergoing maintenance due to furnace problems.  Some factories that were expected to start production before the end of the year had postponed their start-up until after the New Year. The actual production situation remained to be seen. Overall alloy production last week showed little fluctuation. In Ningxia, silicomanganese inventory was accumulating, and shipments were relatively low, with no significant fluctuations in production.

Overall supply was contracting in the southern region. Factories in Guilin reported high electricity costs in January, with typical production electricity rates around 0.48 RMB per kilowatt-hour.  Many factories had recently suspended operations, leading to a decrease in factory utilization rates.  Electricity rates in Guizhou and Yunnan provinces remained unclear, and factories were currently still paying the high rates from 2025, resulting in low enthusiasm for resuming production.

Supply from northern silicomanganese production regions continued to increase, with further production expected. Southern companies had lower operating rates, and previously idled factories had no plans to resume production. Overall silicomanganese production remained at a relatively high level. According to statistics, the national operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises last week was 36.81%, a decrease of 0.08% compared to last week; the average daily output was 27,290 tons, a decrease of 385 tons.

According to incomplete statistics, as of January 9th, the total inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises nationwide was 382,500 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the previous period. This includes: Inner Mongolia (64,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons); Ningxia (290,500 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons); Guangxi (8,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons); Guizhou (5,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons); Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi (10,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons); and Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing (4,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons).

Upstream cost side: The manganese ore market remained firm and showed upward momentum last week. Prices for mainstream ores continued to strengthen, with both quoted and transaction prices rising. Last week saw price increases of 0.5-1 RMB/MTU. As factories approach their pre-holiday stocking period, inquiry and purchasing activity increased. As of January 9, downstream factories were operating relatively stably, maintaining high demand for manganese ore, which also supports spot prices. Overall, supported by costs and demand, manganese ore prices were expected to remain firm and show upward momentum, with market participants watching for fluctuations in mine price increases.

As of January 9, the semi-carbonate iron ore price at Tianjin Port was 35.5-36 RMB/MTU, while South African high-grade iron ore was trading at varying prices between 30-32 RMB/MTU. Gabonese iron ore was around 43-43.5 RMB/MTU, South32 Australian lumps were around 42 RMB/MTU, and CML Australian lumps were around 44 RMB/MTU.

The price trends for different types of manganese ore at Qinzhou Port vary. Semi-carbonate manganese ore is affected by high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices for different grades ranging from 35 to 35.5 RMB/MTU. Other varieties were consolidating upwards, with South African high-iron ore at 32-32.5 RMB/MTU, South African medium-iron ore above 39 RMB/MTU, and high-grade Australian ore at 36.5-37 RMB/MTU.

In the international market, Comilog's February 2026 shipment of manganese ore from Gabon to China was quoted at US$4.9 per ton-degree, an increase of US$0.2 per ton-degree compared to the previous month.

Regarding demand: Major steel mills were proceeding slowly with their bidding processes, and the announced bidding prices were mostly concentrated around 5,900-5,950 RMB/ton. According to relevant statistics, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises in late December 2025 was 1.643 million tons, a decrease of 11.0% compared to the previous ten-day period and a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year. The scale of short-term winter stockpiling was gradually being confirmed, but the reality of shrinking demand during the off-season also needed to be addressed.

A steel plant in Guangxi was tendering for silicomanganese at a price of 5,850 RMB/ton, with a purchase quantity of 3,000 tons, cash payment, including taxes, delivered to the factory.

According to reports, a steel plant in East China had finalized its latest silicomanganese alloy tender price at 5,850 RMB/ton (cash payment), with a planned quantity of 8,000 tons. Another group had finalized its latest silicomanganese alloy tender price at 5,830-5,990 RMB/ton (cash payment), with a total purchase quantity of 9,300 tons. Another steel plant in East China had finalized its latest silicomanganese alloy tender price at 5,950 RMB/ton (cash payment), with a quantity of 1,000 tons. A group in East China had finalized its latest silicomanganese alloy tender price at 5,880 and 5,930 RMB/ton (acceptance payment), with a total purchase quantity of 2,000 tons. A steel plant in Jiangsu had finalized its latest silicomanganese alloy tender price at 5,880 RMB/ton (acceptance payment). Some steel plants were still conducting silicomanganese tenders, including Xinyu Steel, which planned to tender for 4,000 tons of silicomanganese alloy; and Longteng Special Steel, which planned to tender for 6,000 tons of silicomanganese. The results of these tenders were yet to be announced.

Market Outlook

Overall, boosted by the strong performance of the futures market, the trend of steel procurement price negotiations was gradually moving upwards, and the silicomanganese market was also showing a gradual upward trend. However, actual transactions were still slow to follow the higher prices, and large-scale steel procurement progress remained under observation. SunSirs expects that the silicomanganese market will likely continue to fluctuate and remain in a wait-and-see mode in the short term, and further observation of steel mills' winter inventory stocking situation and the trend of the ferrous metals futures market is needed.

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