Price trend

The overall silicomanganese market was weaker last week. Major steel mills did not initiate bidding, and prices from steel mills in the south continued to decline, resulting in continued losses for factories. Operating rates in major southern producing areas began to decrease, with the most significant reduction in output in Yunnan. There was also room for further declines in operating rates at factories in Inner Mongolia. On the cost side, manganese ore prices remained relatively firm, while the price of chemical coke remained unchanged. According to data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the market price of silicomanganese (FeMN68Si18 specification) in Ningxia was around 5,500-5,600 RMB/ton at the end of last week, with an average market price of 5,564.00 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.57% compared to the beginning of the week.

Factors influencing price changes:

On the supply side:

Last week, the operating rate of factories in Inner Mongolia had decrease room. Due to poor profits in silicomanganese, some factories switched to producing other products, while other factories that had previously resumed production had returned to normal output. Regarding new capacity this month, two furnaces were expected to be ignited. In Ningxia, production wa operating normally, but manufacturers' shipments remained slow.

The operating rate in the main production areas in the south had begun to decline, with the most significant reduction in output in Yunnan. In November, the Yunnan production area officially entered the dry season, and the electricity price rose sharply from 0.37 RMB/kWh during the wet season to 0.5 RMB/kWh. Starting from October 31, six ferrosilicon submerged arc furnaces were shut down for maintenance, and three ferrosilicon submerged arc furnaces were put into operation during off-peak hours, affecting a total of 880 tons of daily output.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide this week was 40.24%, a decrease of 2.75% compared to last week; the average daily output was 28,840 tons, a decrease of 835 tons.

As of November 6, according to incomplete statistics, the national inventory of silicomanganese enterprises was 319,500 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 44,500 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons; Ningxia had 242,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; Guangxi had 11,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons; Guizhou had 7,000 tons, an increase of 500 tons; Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi had 5,000 tons, unchanged; and Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing had 9,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons.

Upstream cost side:

The manganese ore market remained firm last week, with fewer low-priced shipments and increased difficulty in negotiating prices. Transaction prices remained relatively stable with fluctuations. At Tianjin Port, the mainstream price for semi-carbonated manganese ore was 34.5 RMB/MTU, with transactions at 34.2-34.3 RMB/MTU. South African high-speed rail ore was 29.8-30 RMB/MTU, Gabonese ore traded at 39.8-40 RMB/MTU, and Australian lump ore traded in the range of 39-40.8 RMB/MTU depending on the specific grade. As of November 7, market sentiment for shipments was not unified. Recently, manganese ore inventory at Qinzhou Port was low. With the arrival of South African vessels, spot prices had slightly retreated, with South African semi-carbonated ore at 37 RMB/MTU, South African high-speed rail ore at 31 RMB/MTU, and Australian ore ore at 34.7-35.7 RMB/MTU.

On the international market, Comilao's December 2025 price for Gabonese manganese ore lump ore shipped to China was $4.5/MTU, up $0.15/MTU month-on-month. CML (Comila Minerals) released its December 2025 price quotes for Australian lump ore to China, with Mn>46% Fe<6% SiO2<18% quoted at $4.8/MTU, up $0.15/MTU month-on-month. South32 released its December 2025 price quotes for manganese ore to China, with Australian manganese ore (lump ore) of 42% Mn quoted at $4.55/MTU (CIF China main port) and South African semi-carbonate manganese ore (lump ore) of 37% Mn quoted at $4.15/MTU (CIF China main port), both unchanged from November.

On the demand side:

Several steel mills in East and South China had launched tenders. Jinshenglan's silicomanganese price was 5,740 RMB/ton in Hubei; 5,700 RMB/ton in Jiangsu; 5,800 RMB/ton in Yunfu, Guangdong; and 5,880 RMB/ton in Heyuan, Guangdong, all in cash. One steel mill in East China had finalized its latest silicomanganese alloy tender price at 5,720 RMB/ton cash, for a quantity of 1,000 tons. Another steel mill in East China had finalized its latest silicomanganese alloy tender price at 5,800 RMB/ton (acceptance payment). A steel mill in Shandong had tendered for silicomanganese at 5,720 RMB/ton, for a quantity of 1,000 tons, with payment upon acceptance and tax included, delivered to the factory.

According to relevant statistics, in late October 2025, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 1.817 million tons, a decrease of 9.8% compared with the previous ten-day period and a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year.

Market Forecast:

In summary, while some silicomanganese producing areas began substantial production cuts, the overall market sentiment was weak due to the approaching off-season for demand. On the cost side, manganese ore prices remained firm, the third round of coking coal price increases had been fully implemented, and there were no changes in chemical coke prices. This led to relatively strong bargaining power in the silicomanganese market. However, the recent downward pressure on prices from some steel mills was further testing the strength of cost support. SunSirs predicts that the silicomanganese market will likely continue to fluctuate dowward narrowly in the short term, exhibiting a wait-and-see attitude.

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