Price trend

The silicomanganese market fluctuated in October, with spot prices remaining weak. Steel mills exerted significant downward pressure on prices, leading to sluggish sales for manufacturers. Factories entered a phase of inventory accumulation and were adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the market. On the cost side, manganese ore prices fluctuated narrowly, and chemical coke prices had not yet been adjusted, providing limited cost support. On the supply side, production in northern regions remained stable, and with low electricity costs, supply will remain high in the short term, resulting in low willingness to reduce production. Electricity costs in southern regions were about to rise, making the cost advantage of production in the north more obvious. On the demand side, there was some pressure to accumulate inventory. Steel mills were operating at high capacity but profits were shrinking, and without any positive factors to boost prices, their willingness to lower prices remained strong. According to data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, at the end of the month, the market price of silicomanganese (specification FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia was around 5,550-5,650 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,604.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared to the beginning of the month.

Influencing Factors

High Silicomanganese Production

This month, some factories in Inner Mongolia underwent maintenance due to furnace and market conditions, while others that had previously undergone maintenance resumed production. Output was not expected to fluctuate significantly. New capacity was unlikely to actually come online this month, with most expected to be commissioned in November. Factories in Ningxia were temporarily experiencing sluggish sales and increasing inventory. On the supply side, factories that previously underwent short-term maintenance due to power plant issues were gradually resuming production, ensuring that Ningxia's supply remains high in the short term.

The overall operating rate in the southern market was relatively stable. After some manufacturers in Guangxi switched to producing high-manganese and large factories in Guizhou operated at full capacity, the operating rate of silicomanganese was expected to fluctuate only slightly this month. After November, the operating rate will decline due to the impact of rising electricity prices in the south, and the spot market for silicomanganese will gradually tighten.

According to incomplete statistics, in October, 13 silicomanganese plants in other parts of northern China started production, a decrease of 2 plants; 21 furnaces were in operation, a decrease of 3 furnaces (due to environmental protection, maintenance, and other reasons); the total output of silicomanganese in other parts of northern China in October was approximately 82,000 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons compared to September.

With alloy production continuing to climb to high levels recently, alloy plant inventories began to gradually increase. According to incomplete statistics, as of October 24th, the national inventory of silicomanganese enterprises totaled 293,000 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons compared to the previous period. Specifically, Inner Mongolia held 43,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons; Ningxia held 217,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons; Guangxi held 10,000 tons, unchanged; Guizhou held 7,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; (Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi) held 7,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; and (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing) held 8,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons.

The manganese ore market was fluctuating

The manganese ore market fluctuated this month. Prices for South African ore remained relatively firm, and market sentiment for further price increases increased, but transaction volume remained to be seen, with downstream buyers adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. Following the arrival of large Gabonese vessels, some traders became more active in selling, but overall prices remained relatively firm with limited declines. Australian ore supplies were plentiful, and some spot prices saw slight easing, with overall price fluctuations ranging from 0.2 to 0.3 RMB/ton-degree.

The Tianjin Port manganese ore market remained relatively stable, with some prices holding firm and transactions involving bargaining. Semi-carbonated manganese ore at Tianjin Port was priced at 34-34.2 RMB/MTU, with the mainstream price at 34.5 RMB/MTU. South African high-speed rail ore was around 30 RMB/MTU, Gabonese ore around 39.8 RMB/MTU, and Australian lump ore was priced between 38.8-40.5 RMB/MTU. Downstream buyers remained cautious and observed the market.

Qinzhou Port: Manganese ore inventory at Qinzhou Port was low, and prices remained stable. Some types of ore were in short supply and prices remained firm. Semi-carbonated manganese ore was priced at 37-37.5 RMB/MTU, South African high-speed rail ore was priced at around 31.5 RMB/ton-degree, and Australian seed ore was priced at 34.5-35.5 RMB/MTU depending on the grade.

On October 24, 2025, manganese ore inventory at Qinzhou Port fell to 565,300 tons, the lowest level this year. Specifically, the latest inventory of South African semi-carbonate manganese ore was 34,800 tons, while the latest inventory of Gabonese high-iron manganese ore was 48,900 tons. Looking back at the period from January to October 2025, the average inventory of manganese ore at Qinzhou Port was 789,100 tons, with the highest inventory reaching 964,400 tons and the lowest being the aforementioned 565,300 tons.

On the international market, NMT announced its November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36% (minimum) South African semi-carbonate lumps are priced at $4.1/MTU, up $0.05/ton-degree month-on-month. UMK announced its November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: South African semi-carbonate lumps are priced at $4.1/ton-degree at both northern and southern ports, up $0.1/MTU month-on-month. Jupiter announced its November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn34% (minimum) South African semi-carbonate powder is priced at $3.65/ton-degree.

Downstream procurement was cautious

While blast furnace operating rates at steel mills saw a slight increase, capacity utilization and pig iron production declined compared to the previous week, leading to a significant drop in profitability and cautious downstream procurement. Data from SteelHome shows that in the week ending October 24th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous week and 2.57 percentage points year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 1.46 percentage points year-on-year; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 17.32 percentage points year-on-year; and the average daily pig iron production was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous week but an increase of 42,100 tons year-on-year.

Regarding steel mill bidding, Hebei Iron & Steel Group's final price for silicomanganese in October was 5,820 RMB/ton, with the first round of inquiries at 5d750 RMB/ton and the second round at 5800 RMB/ton. The September price for silicomanganese was 6000 RMB/ton. (The October 2024 price is 6200 RMB/ton). The procurement volume for silicomanganese was 16,500 tons. The September procurement volume was 17000 tons. (The October 2024 procurement volume for silicomanganese is 12000 tons).

Market outlook

In summary, while maintenance shutdowns and resumption of production in Inner Mongolia offset each other, and new capacity additions this month were unlikely to materialize, and operating rates in the south are stable, high inventory levels and slow shipments in Ningxia, coupled with most factories closing production due to poor profit margins, mean there were no significant positive factors on the supply side. On the demand side, steel mill blast furnace operating rates slightly increased, but capacity utilization and pig iron production had declined month-on-month, resulting in a significant drop in profitability. Downstream procurement was cautious, providing insufficient support for prices. On the cost side, only manganese ore prices at Qinzhou Port had risen due to tight supply, while prices at Tianjin Port remained stable with a wait-and-see attitude, offering limited support for costs. However, rising electricity costs in the south in November are expected to lead to a decrease in operating rates and a tightening of spot prices, which may limit short-term price declines. SunSirs predicts that the silicomanganese market will likely continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

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