Demand side: Multi-domain demand explosion:
1. Accelerated Commercialization of Solid-State Batteries: Global demand for zirconium from solid-state batteries is expected to reach 60,000 tons in 2026, three times the 2025 level. 60 tons of zirconia are needed to produce 1 GWh of solid-state batteries, and leading companies have orders scheduled through 2026.
2. Renewal of the nuclear power industry: China's under construction nuclear power units each require 120 tons of zirconium materials, and the new projects started in 2025 can drive the demand for more than 2,700 tons. International orders such as the long-term agreement signed by French Areva and Dongfang Zirconium to purchase 800 tons of nuclear-grade sponge zirconium per year further support the demand.
3. Growth in high-end manufacturing：
3.1. Consumer Electronics: The zirconium usage for the ceramic back panel of flagship smartphones such as Huawei Mate70 Ultra increases from 5g to 12g, and the market size may exceed 8 billion yuan by 2025.
3.2. Medical field: 3D printed zirconia crown permeability exceeds 60%, the amount of single use increases from 2g to 5g, and the demand for medical grade zirconia increases by 25% per year.
Supply side: resource constraints and capacity contraction:
1. Global resource depletion: Australian zirconia mines may shut down if they cannot be put into production, and the global concentrate shortage could reach 50,000 tons in 2026. Major Australian mines are expected to enter the depletion period from 2026-2027.
2. Domestic environmental protection production restrictions: 18 beneficiation plants in Jiangxi, Hainan and other places were shut down due to environmental protection inspections, involving an annual capacity of 80,000 tons; the production line in Guangxi was shut down due to emission problems, and the cost of equipment upgrade is high.
3. Policy Impact: China initiates the purchase and storage of 10,000 tons of nuclear-grade sponge zirconium, leading to a sharp decrease in market availability; low-grade mine prices soar by 2% in a single day, exacerbating supply tensions.
4. Price trend and market expectations:
1. Short-term: The price of zircon sand has risen to $2,150/ton (up 8%) in 2025, and the average price of zirconia has reached 68,000 yuan/ton (up 3%) If Australian mines shut down, prices could break through $2,200/tonne.
2. Long-term: The global supply and demand gap is expected to reach 13,000 tons in 2026, and the proportion of zirconium used in the clean energy field will increase from 5% in 2025 to 20% in 2030.
To sum up, the rise in zirconium prices is the result of the combined effects of the surge in demand for new energy, nuclear power, and high-end manufacturing, and the depletion of resources and environmental restrictions. The future supply and demand gap may further expand.12.
Price trend of zircon sand:
1. Short-term (2025): The supply side is affected by the reduction of Australian mining quotas, strikes in South Africa, and the new mine in Xinjiang, China, has not yet fully released its capacity, which may lead to a global zirconium concentrate supply gap of 50,000 tons, and the price is expected to break through the 2,200 USD/ton.
2. Long-term (2025-2030): The mines in major producing regions such as Australia are facing depletion, and the global supply of zircon sand is expected to decline by 11%. Meanwhile, demand is expected to grow in fields such as nuclear power and solid-state batteries, leading to a widening supply-demand gap and prices may break historical highs.
High purity zirconia price trend:
1. Demand-driven: The demand for high-end applications such as solid-state batteries (requiring 10-20kg of high-purity zirconia per GWh) and 3nm chip coating is expected to explode, leading to an increase in zirconium usage in the clean energy sector to 294,000 tons by 2030, with the demand share rising from 2% to 20%.
2. Supply Bottleneck: 99.9% of global high-purity zirconia production capacity is monopolized by Japanese and French companies, China's dependence on foreign countries exceeds 80%, and slow capacity expansion and technical barriers will support the continuous rise in prices.
Risk and opportunity:
1. Resource Scarcity: China's zirconia reserves account for only 0.6% of the global total, but the discovery of new mines in Xinjiang, with a capacity of over 2 million tons, may alleviate the long-term dependence on imports.
2. Policy Support: China has listed nuclear-grade sponge zirconium as an encouraged industry, and local governments provide subsidies for zirconium material projects, which is conducive to enhancing domestic production capacity.
Summary: The price of zirconium metal is expected to enter an upward cycle in the next 5-10 years. It is recommended to pay attention to the fields of nuclear power and military industry, solid-state batteries, etc., where demand is expected to grow, as well as enterprises with resource layout and technological breakthroughs.
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