"Since the beginning of this year, the global shipbuilding market has declined significantly due to factors such as a slowdown in economic growth, oversupply of shipping capacity, and external international games."

During the 2025 China International Maritime Fair held from December 2nd to 5th, Zhao Tongbin, Deputy General Manager of China Shipbuilding Group Co., Ltd., made the above statement.

Data from the Economic Research Center of China Shipbuilding Group (CSG), shows that from January to October this year, global new ship orders totalled 1,632 units and 94.87 million deadweight tons (dwt), a year-on-year decrease of 44.5%.

Zhao Tongbin said the global shipbuilding market will still face significant uncertainties in the future.

Xing Wenhua, the chairman of the Shanghai Society of Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering, also pointed out at the recent press conference for the 2025 China International Maritime Exhibition that the global new shipbuilding market is expected to see a significant decline in overall transaction volume this year due to the combined impact of capacity constraints in shipbuilding and global economic uncertainties.

In response to the sharp decline in new ship orders, Steve Gordon, MD of Clarksons Research, stated that the data needs to be viewed in the specific context.

He pointed out that last year was the strongest year for new ship orders in nearly 16 years, and shipyards are ahead of the game in terms of new orders. Currently, if you want to order a large vessel, the delivery period is already scheduled until 2029 or even later, and shipyards have a strong dominant position.

Gordon also pointed out that although the volume of new ship orders has declined year-on-year, the current period is still the most active stage of shipbuilding activities throughout the year. Some of the uncertain factors that previously led to the order size falling short of expectations have gradually been eliminated, and investors have gradually adapted to dealing with geopolitical risks.

Li Yanqing, Vice President and Secretary General of the China Association of Shipbuilding Industry, said that the shipbuilding industry is a typical cyclical industry, and according to the development rules of previous cycles, the industry's upward phase usually lasts for 3-5 years.

At present, the global shipbuilding industry is in a new cycle that began in 2021 and is still maintained at a high level of prosperity. This year is already the fifth year of the upward cycle, and whether the prosperous cycle is about to end has attracted widespread attention.

Li Yanqing judged that the industry's upswing cycle is not over, but will enter a period of adjustment.

Gordon pointed out that the current demand for fleet renewal is still strong, and there are still a large number of old ships that need to be updated.

The charts it presented show that in the markets that have performed strongly in the past 4 - 5 years, the volume of ship demolitions has remained at a low level. The total deadweight tonnage of ships reaching 25 years of age is expected to increase from approximately 28 million deadweight tons in 2024 to 100 million deadweight tons in 2035. These ships were all built during the previous shipbuilding cycle 15 years ago and will need to be replaced in the future.

Gordon also noted that the vessels built during the last shipbuilding cycle, the majority of which are not environmentally friendly, do not meet current requirements in terms of speed design and green transition adaptability.

Gordon expects global shipbuilding output, measured by deadweight tons, to increase 40 percent this year from the industry trough of 2020.

China is expected to account for 52 percent of the global total deadweight tonnage in shipbuilding this year, while South Korea is expected to account for about 27-28 percent and Japan about 12-13 percent. Global shipbuilding output is expected to continue to grow in the future, said Gordon.

The China Shipbuilding Group's Economic Research Center pointed out in its review and forecast of the global shipbuilding market in 2025 released last month that the decline in new ship orders in 2025 has become a fait accompli, but it is expected to reach about 120 million deadweight tons, still at a historically good level.

However, according to the judgment of the Economic Research Center of the Shipbuilding Group, the short-term shipbuilding market is still facing factors such as weak economic growth, tariff policies and great power competition, the uncertainty of green development technology routes, the superposition of declining shipping rates and high ship prices leading to interference in the investment decisions of shipowners, and the increased risk of downward trends in stages.

"The global shipbuilding market is expected to have an average annual demand of about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million DWT during the '15th Five-Year Plan' period, about 20% lower than the average of the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, but still about 50% higher than the average of the '13th Five-Year Plan' period," said the China Shipbuilding Group Economic Research Center.

In Li Yanqing's view, at this stage, the key to the high-quality development of China's shipbuilding industry is historical consciousness and initiative.

He pointed out that China's shipbuilding industry has already occupied more than 60 percent of the global market share, and should not blindly pursue scale expansion, and needs to break the traditional thinking of competing with "quantity", and avoid falling into the trap of internal folding and growth limits.

Li Yanqing believes that in the development of the global shipbuilding industry, China's shipbuilding should bear a greater responsibility, "We should also focus on building high-end and high-quality shipbuilding capabilities, and we should also share this market with everyone."

He further added that efforts should be made to build a high-quality, green and intelligent global supply chain, deepen cooperation in the rules, standards and cooperative governance, and promote the orderly development of industries.

In terms of regional layout, it is necessary to develop according to local conditions and at different levels, guide the formation of differentiated and benchmarked capability patterns in bases such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Bohai Rim, meet the diversified market demand, and form a global driving force.

Finally, Li Yanqing specifically pointed out that for the Chinese shipbuilding industry to shape its leadership globally, it must also build close partnerships, adhere to collaborative development and value sharing, and build a community with a shared future for the ocean.

"This is the key path for the Chinese shipbuilding industry to continue to develop over the next five years," said Li Yanqing.

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