1. Price trend

According to the statistics of SunSirs, the price of seamless pipes fluctuated widely in May. At the beginning of the month, the price of 20#, 108*4.5 seamless pipes was 4077.5 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, it rose to 4105 RMB/ton, up 0.67%, down 11.96% year-on-year.

Raw materials: The negative feedback effect on the raw material side is significant, the second round of price increase and decrease of coke has landed, and the cost support continues to loosen.

Supply: As of the end of the month, the inventory of seamless pipe factories was 622,400 tons, up 6,900 tons from the previous month. At the end of the month, the operating rate of seamless pipe factories across the country was 63.582%, up 0.13% from the previous month.

Demand: Terminal demand continued to shrink. The current market industry end has obvious off-season characteristics, continuous rainfall in the south has suppressed construction progress, terminal purchasing intention is sluggish, and industrial data has obviously weakened marginally.

Export: In April 2025, China exported 494,100 tons of seamless pipes, a decrease of 10.02% from the previous month and 2.02% from the previous year. From January to April, China exported 1.9092 million tons of seamless pipes, a year-on-year increase of 10.05%. In April 2025, China imported 7,000 tons of seamless pipes, a decrease of 18.60% from the previous month and 39.66% from the previous year. From January to April 2025, China imported 30,900 tons of seamless pipes, a year-on-year decrease of 23.33%. The decline in seamless pipe export data in April has increased market merchants' concerns about the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic environment, especially against the background of marginal weakening of manufacturing demand, market sentiment tends to be cautious. In summary, on the one hand, terminal demand continues to shrink, and on the other hand, although pipe mills are disturbed by rumors of limited production, substantial large-scale production cuts have not yet been implemented, and finished product supply pressure is still there. At present, inventory pressure is gradually shifting to pipe mills. On the whole, it is expected that seamless pipes will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

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