This week, copper prices rose first and then fell. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 78143.33 RMB/ton, up 0.04% from 78113.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, up 5.84% from the beginning of the year, and down 5.85% year-on-year.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices rose slightly this week.

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper stocks fell slightly. As of the weekend, LME copper stocks were 166,525 tons, down 15.77% from the beginning of the month.

Macro: The scale of US debt is approaching 35 trillion US dollars. Market concerns that the Trump administration's tax cut bill may aggravate the fiscal deficit continue to ferment. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through the 4.5% mark, and the US dollar index rebounded to 101.5, suppressing the valuation of commodities denominated in US dollars. The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting focused on the issue of aid to Ukraine, but the differences between the United States and its allies on tariff policies intensified. Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from Canada and the European Union has caused market concerns about the global supply chain.

Supply side: The copper concentrate processing fee (TC) remained at a low level of -40 US dollars/dry ton, but the port inventory increased to 420,000 tons, alleviating some supply anxiety. Domestic electrolytic copper production fell 4.2% month-on-month to 957,000 tons in April, mainly due to concentrated maintenance of smelters in Jiangxi, Yunnan and other places, but the resumption of production capacity after maintenance in May led to a rebound in production to 1.1299 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. On the import side, the net import volume of refined copper in March fell 11.5% year-on-year to 240,800 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased to 280,000 tons, supplementing domestic supply.

Demand side: The growth rate of power grid investment slowed to 8%, and copper for construction fell 12% year-on-year due to the drag of the real estate chain. Only the demand for copper for new energy vehicles remained resilient (the monthly copper consumption increased by 18% year-on-year).

In summary: Data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) show that the global refined copper supply surplus was 20,500 tons in March, an increase of 8,000 tons from February, and the fundamental support has weakened marginally. Under the fundamentals of weak supply and demand, there are certain macro risks, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term.

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