After the May Day holiday, the silicon manganese market is still weak, and futures fluctuate at a low level. The wait-and-see sentiment in the manganese ore market has increased, low-price shipments have decreased, and there is an expectation of rising chemical coke prices. Short-term cost support is acceptable. This week, the shutdown situation of silicon manganese continued to be updated, production declined, and the bidding performance of downstream steel mills was average. The transaction price was between 5540 RMB/ton cash and 5650 RMB/ton acceptance. The steel mills still had a strong price-cutting sentiment. According to the data from the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification FeMN68Si18) this weekend was around 5550-5700 RMB/ton, and the market average price was 5634.00 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.11% compared with before the holiday.

1. Influencing factors

Supply side: This week, some factories in Inner Mongolia began to reduce production for maintenance. A silicon manganese enterprise stopped production of a 42000KVA submerged arc furnace for maintenance; a 33000KVA submerged arc furnace; another factory that had been overhauled in the early stage resumed production during the May Day holiday, and the overall alloy output decreased. Some factories still have maintenance plans. Ningxia manufacturers still closed the market and did not report, with a loss of about 350 RMB/ton in immediate profit. The enthusiasm for starting work decreased, and some furnaces stopped production and waited and saw. Ningxia mostly used spot ore, and the settlement electricity price in April was slightly reduced. The electricity price in May is expected to rise from a low level, and the cost price gap with Inner Mongolia is relatively narrowed.

The number of shutdowns in Guangxi and Guizhou continues to increase. Bisheng Mining continues to reduce production after the holiday, with the overall output being only one-third. Two submerged arc furnaces have been shut down in the Baise plant, and only one furnace is currently in production, affecting daily output of 410 tons. Two submerged arc furnaces are currently in operation in the Tiandong plant, but only one produces silicon manganese and the other produces other products, affecting daily output of 200 tons. One submerged arc furnace has been shut down in the Xingyi plant, affecting daily output of 180 tons. Currently, output is in a state of substantial reduction, and the time for resumption of production is to be determined. The flood season in Yunnan is approaching, but some factories are less willing to start work. Overall, the overall output in the south will remain low.

According to statistics, the operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises nationwide this week was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week; the average daily output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1,540 tons.

According to incomplete statistics, as of May 9, the inventory of manganese silicon enterprises nationwide was 207,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 25,300 tons. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 50,300 tons, up 2,300 tons month-on-month; Ningxia had 121,000 tons, up 20,000 tons month-on-month; Guangxi had 8,500 tons, up 1,000 tons month-on-month; Guizhou had 10,000 tons, up 1,000 tons month-on-month; (Shanxi, Gansu, Shaanxi) had 6,300 tons, unchanged; (Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing) had 11,000 tons, up 1,000 tons month-on-month.

Upstream cost side: The manganese ore market showed signs of stopping the decline, and some types of ores had a slight upward trend. Australian ore performed more obviously. After the low-priced goods were sold in the early stage, the current spot market has gradually reduced low-price transactions, the port-to-port cost loss is serious, the traders' price quotations are partially high, the downstream silicon manganese futures rebounded, and the market confidence was slightly relieved. At present, the factory continues to suppress the price of manganese ore under the cost pressure, but the difficulty of suppressing the price is gradually increasing.

On the foreign market, South 32 announced the price of manganese ore to China in June 2025, and the price of semi-carbonated manganese ore from South Africa was US$ 3.8/ton degree, which was US$ 0.25 /ton degree lower than the price in May. NMT announced the shipping price of manganese ore to China in May 2025, Mn35.5% South African semi-carbonated block was US$ 3.75 /ton degree, and the price of Mn36.5% semi-carbonated block in April was US$ 4.3/ton degree.

Data shows that the current price of Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port is 38.5-39.5 RMB/ton degree, semi-carbonated block is 33 RMB/ton degree, and Gabon block is 37-37.5 RMB/ton degree; the price of Australian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port is 41-42 RMB/ton degree, semi-carbonated block is 34.5 RMB/ton degree, and Gabon block is 39.5-40.5 RMB/ton degree.

Demand: It is reported that the latest tender price of silicon-manganese alloy of a steel plant in East China was finalized at 5,620 RMB/ton, which was 210 RMB/ton lower than the previous round of purchase price, and the purchase quantity was 6,250 tons. The latest tender price of silicon-manganese alloy of a steel plant was announced, 5,798 RMB/ton in Zhanjiang District, 1,000 tons, 5,680 RMB/ton in Baoshan, 700 tons, and 5,690 RMB/ton in Hubei, 1,500 tons; all are acceptance prices including tax. It is also reported that Longteng Special Steel plans to bid for 3,000 tons of silicon-manganese alloy

II. Market Forecast

On the whole, the manganese ore side is slightly stable and the price is supported, and the sustainability of the market development still needs attention; the price pressure of steel mills in bidding has not eased. Although the production reduction and maintenance situation in major production areas continues to be updated, the silicon-manganese supply level in the northern region is still at a relatively high level, and market confidence is mostly in a downturn. The business community predicts that the silicon-manganese market may still operate weakly in the short term, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to price guidance and the realization of factory reduction and suspension of production.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@SunSirs.com.