According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is experiencing a unilateral downward trend. From April 1st to 28th, MTBE prices fell from 5,715 RMB/ton to 5,150 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 9.89% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 29.81%.

In the first half of the month, the MTBE market operated narrowly and weakly. During the Qingming holiday, the sharp drop in crude oil had a negative impact on the market trend. After the holiday, international crude oil continued to decline, and end-users still had enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline components. As a result, the MTBE market fell narrowly.

In the middle of the month, the MTBE market showed a fluctuating downward trend, with poor performance in the gasoline terminal market and continuous imbalance between production and sales. The demand for MTBE remained low, and at the same time, Dongying Shenchi and Bengu new material facilities were operating, further increasing resource supply and significantly increasing domestic supply pressure.

At the end of the month, the MTBE market continued its weak trend, but the decline slowed down slightly. With prices continuously decreasing, manufacturers' losses deepened, and their willingness to continue offering discounts slowed down. At the same time, as the May Day holiday approached, terminal operators moderately replenished their inventory, and transactions slightly warmed up, with little decline.

On the cost side, in the first half of the month, international oil prices significantly fell, mainly due to negative factors such as the potential escalation of trade dispute risks caused by the new US tariff policies, weakened global economic and demand prospects, and market concerns. In mid month, international oil prices rose, mainly due to the positive factors of the United States' unchanged stance on sanctions against Iran, coupled with some oil producing countries submitting compensation plans for overproduction. At the end of the month, international oil prices fell, mainly due to negative factors such as OPEC+ considering further increasing production in June, and Kazakhstan stating that it may be difficult to strictly comply with the compensatory production reduction plan. The easing of the geopolitical situation has put pressure on the oil market. The international crude oil market overall declined in April.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, as the May Day holiday approaches, middle and downstream businesses have good expectations for consumption during the holiday period. There is still a wave of replenishment operations, and there are still some shipping orders to be delivered at the end of the month, which provides some positive support for the demand side. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the operating load of Dongying Shenchi plant will continue to increase at the beginning of the month. Shandong Lushanfa and Huizhou Yuxin plan to resume their plants by the end of April. The production of new materials will be affected after the start of production, and Dongfang Hongye has plans to shut down. Overall, it is expected that resource supply may increase slightly. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on April 27th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $5.71/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $679.67-681.67/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $9/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $786.49-786.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $25.39/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $706.27-706.62/ton (199.42-199.52 cents/gallon).

As the May Day holiday approaches, people's expectations for travel and leisure activities are increasing, and gasoline market transactions are gradually improving, which is expected to provide some support for the MTBE market. But currently, the supply of MTBE resources is still relatively high. Let's take a look at the supply and demand. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

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