According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated and declined in November. From November 1st to 28th, the MTBE price first rose from 4,920 RMB/ton and then fell to 4,925 RMB/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0.10% and a maximum amplitude of 1.94% during the period. The price decreased by 9.22% year-on-year.

After entering November, the domestic MTBE market continued its narrow range dynamic trend, with prices slightly falling and adjusting in the first half of the month. Many export port manufacturers provided support to the market, while prices slightly rebounded in the middle of the month with the support of terminal operators' periodic inventory replenishment. In the second half of the month, prices were weakly consolidated in a narrow range, and the weak gasoline market formed a bearish trend for the market. However, with more exports, manufacturers have a willingness to raise prices, and there is little room for market fluctuations during the month. Prices mainly fluctuate sporadically between small areas.

In terms of cost, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend in November, and the average price decreased compared to October. In the first ten days, the market weighed the impact of oversupply risks, and the US government shutdown is expected to end, boosting economic and demand expectations, leading to an increase in international oil prices. In mid month, the United States proposed a new plan to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, reducing concerns about geopolitical risks and causing a decline in international oil prices. Later in the day, it was rumored that Ukraine had agreed to the new Russia Ukraine peace agreement proposed by the United States. Geopolitical concerns continued to ease, and international oil prices fell.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, there is a low level of essential demand, but in some areas such as Shandong where gasoline prices are at a low level, it attracts terminal enthusiasm to enter the market. Some units may plan to advance and increase future orders, which will provide some support for raw material costs. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the Yueli Huayi dehydrogenation unit started construction, and the Bengu new material briefly started before shutting down. The Ningbo Haode unit underwent maintenance, while other manufacturers continued to operate normally, resulting in an overall increase in resource supply. The overall domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 27th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $9.94/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $645.02-647.02/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $1.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $764.74-765.24/ton. On Thanksgiving, the MTBE market in the United States is closed.

The future forecast shows that supply pressure still exists, and terminal demand is relatively flat. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that there may still be a possibility of a decline in the domestic MTBE market.

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