According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from December 1st to 5th, MTBE prices first rose from 4,922 RMB/ton and then fell to 4,902 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.41% during the period, a month on month drop of 2.24%, and a year-on-year drop of 10.64%. The domestic MTBE market first rose and then fell. In the first half of the week, the market was dominated by volatile upward behavior, and the good international crude oil trend provided positive support for the mentality of industry players. Manufacturers actively pushed up prices, and downstream industry players seized the opportunity to replenish their inventory. Overall transactions were smooth, but the price slightly increased, and there was a lack of sustained positive boost on the demand side. At the same time, some large manufacturers still exported a large amount, and the pressure of supply-demand imbalance remained. Coupled with the weakening of crude oil, the market slightly fell back in the second half of the week.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: the international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are that the market continues to weigh the progress of the Russia Ukraine situation, and concerns about long-term oversupply still exist, putting pressure on oil prices. As of December 4th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the February contract was $63.26 per barrel.
In terms of demand and downstream gasoline, there is slight room for international oil prices to rise. However, the expected retail price limit for refined oil products has been lowered in this round, making it difficult for the refined oil market to shake off the volatile pattern. Both buyers and sellers maintain rational purchasing operations, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Ningbo Haode and Hebei Xinxinyuan have plans to commence installation, and it is expected that resource supply may increase. The supply side of MTBE is affected by negative factors.
As of the close on December 4th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $3.4/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $649.79-651.79/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $10.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $773.49-773.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $36.16/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $693.84-694.19/ton (195.91-196.01 cents/gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that raw material prices will run at a high level, and manufacturers are hovering near the profit and loss margin, indicating a willingness to raise prices. However, there are expectations of an increase in resource supply, and the positive boost from gasoline demand is insufficient. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that there is a possibility of a decline in the domestic MTBE market.
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