According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from April 15th to 22nd (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,645 RMB/ton to 2,715 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices increased by 2.65%, with a month on month increase of 1.75% and a year-on-year increase of 5.67%. The domestic methanol supply has shrunk, but there has been little change in demand. In addition, some downstream companies have started pre holiday stocking before the May Day holiday, and production enterprises continue to reduce inventory. The domestic methanol market continues to rise and operate mainly.
As of the close of April 22, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,575 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,599 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,551 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,558 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, a decrease of 21 RMB/ton compared to the previous settlement day, a decrease of 0.81%. The trading volume was 1,054,236 lots, and the position was 908,238 lots, with a daily increase of 20,157.
On the cost side, as prices reach a relatively low level and downstream inquiries for goods increase, market sentiment has improved. However, the overall supply and demand structure of the current market still shows a loose trend. In addition, with the rise of temperature, terminal daily consumption will gradually show a seasonal decline trend. The weakening of the demand side will make the market continue to rise weakly. It is expected that the current round of increase will not be too large and will not last long. In the future, coal prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Jining Hengying device has increased its load, Hengxin Huiquan device has stopped short, and formaldehyde demand has increased; Downstream dimethyl ether: The shutdown of Qianjiang Jinhua Run and Guizhou Tianfu facilities may result in a short-term restart plan, leading to an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Shandong Shenfa and Qingzhou Tianan will start construction, leading to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: The Jinling unit in Shandong Province has returned to normal, and the demand for chloride has increased; Downstream acetic acid: Seranis and Tianjing are expected to recover, leading to an increase in demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of equipment at CNOOC Chemical, Jiangsu Sopu, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Datang Duolun, and Shanghai Huayi; Production reduction of Zhong'an United and Jiangsu Sopu equipment; Shandong Rongxin, Jiangsu Sopu, Guizhou Tianfu, and Anyang have successfully resumed installation. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 19th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $344.00-345.00 per ton, up $3 per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market was between 100.00 and 101.00 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 306.25-307.25 euros/ton, down 0.75 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, coal prices may continue to fluctuate after a slight rebound, and cost support may be limited; Some enterprises in the main production area are still undergoing equipment maintenance, with good support from the supply side. In addition, as the May Day holiday approaches, there is still a demand for downstream replenishment. SunSirs Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market will remain strong in the short term.
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