The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on July 15th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to be lowered. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six upward adjustments, five downward adjustments, and two stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil market has fallen, and the rate of change of crude oil remains negative. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 will encounter the "sixth" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market is fluctuating. As of the 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $66.98 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is $69.21 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, OPEC+ is likely to maintain a significant increase in production in August and September, and the tension in the Middle East has eased compared to before. Affected by this news, the international oil market trend has fallen slightly; On the other hand, the market's concerns about the US tariff negotiations have eased to some extent, and major institutions have a pessimistic view of the demand outlook. The demand side may be difficult to change, and the crude oil market remains weak. As of the 15th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day is -2.81%, corresponding to an expected reduction of 130 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 125 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to 89# 0.09 RMB, 92# 0.10 RMB, 95# 0.10 RMB, and 0# 0.11 RMB per liter. The retail price of refined oil products in this round is about to be lowered.

In terms of gasoline, there has been little change in the operating rate of local refineries recently. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries nationwide has risen to around 84%. The supply of refined oil from local refineries has slightly increased. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, and transactions have further been hit. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, leading to fluctuations in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has slightly increased, while the demand side has weakened due to the increase in rainy weather. The summer harvest has gradually ended, and agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before. However, diesel inventory pressure is not high, and infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. The trend of the diesel oil market has slightly declined.

Looking at the future: Recently, both long and short factors have jointly affected the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, which will provide some cost support for the domestic refined oil market. Domestically, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is loose, and the demand for gasoline is relatively normal, resulting in mainly volatile gasoline market prices; The demand for diesel has declined compared to before, and diesel prices may slightly decrease in the later period.

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