According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,250 RMB/ton to 2,313 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.80% during the period, a month on month decrease of 4.77%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.72%. Domestic methanol production enterprises have poor shipments, coupled with insufficient transportation capacity during the holiday period, some methanol production enterprises have accumulated inventory and actively lowered prices to ship, resulting in overall weak methanol prices in mainland China; The coastal methanol market has been boosted by policies, with prices rebounding from low levels to rise. However, after the rise, shipments have been poor, and the basis has fallen slightly.

As of the close on June 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2,269 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,278 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,254 RMB/ton. It closed at 2264 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 7 RMB or 0.31% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 607,691 lots, the position is 799,644, and the daily increase in position is -12,806.

On the cost side, coal continues to fluctuate at a low level, which weakens the cost support for methanol. The price decline still exerts pressure on methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, there has been a narrow downward adjustment in the prices of acetic acid factories, while the formaldehyde market has remained stable with small fluctuations, and the focus of dimethyl ether transactions has shifted downwards. Most downstream products have little fluctuation in methanol demand, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of Yunnan Jiehua, Anhui Linquan, Xiaoyi Pengfei, Yulin Kaiyue, and Yunnan Yuntianhua facilities; Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Ningxia Baofeng, Shenhua Bayannur, and Inner Mongolia Black Cat installations have been restored. The overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of June 5th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $319.50-320.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 78.00-79.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 264.50-265.50 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, overall construction will maintain high fluctuations, and the arrival of foreign ships in coastal areas will gradually increase. Port inventory may gradually enter the accumulation channel. Traditional downstream demand continues to be weak. SunSirs methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is mainly weak.

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