Price trend

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from January 4th to 9th (as of 3:00 PM), the domestic methanol market price at East China ports rose from 2,245 RMB/ton to around 2,265 RMB/ton, representing a 0.93% increase during the period, an 8.93% increase compared to the previous month, and a 15.27% decrease compared to the same period last year. Driven by expectations of reduced imports and the boost to market sentiment from unstable international conditions, the port methanol market mainly showed an upward trend. Supported by rising port prices, increased external procurement of olefins, and downstream restocking after the holidays, methanol prices rose in many parts of the domestic market.

As of the close of trading on January 9th, 2026, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract (2605) opened at 2,238 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,276 RMB/ton, a low of 2,211 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,273 RMB/ton, an increase of 30 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement price, representing a 1.34% increase. The trading volume was 1,553,611 lots, open interest was 812,955 lots, and the daily change in open interest was -57,244 lots.

Analysis and Commentarys

From a cost perspective, the slow release of coal restocking demand will limit the extent of the coal price rebound, providing limited support for methanol prices. Overall, the cost factors for methanol were slightly positive.

On the demand side, mainland China's olefin demand remained relatively stable, but consumption in traditional sectors had declined, widening the supply-demand gap. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol was bearish.

On the supply side, the Inner Mongolia Jiuding plant was undergoing maintenance; the Zhongyuan Dahua plant resumed operations; overall, the amount of production lost due to maintenance was greater than the amount recovered, resulting in a decrease in overall production. However, due to the decrease in the effective production capacity base, the capacity utilization rate increased month-on-month. The methanol supply side for methanol was slightly bearish.

In the international market, as of the close of trading on January 8th, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at US$321.5-322.5/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at US$87.5-88.5 cents/gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at €259.5-260.5/ton.

Market Outlook 

With significantly reduced import expectations for methanol and a notable contraction in supply, inventories are expected to decrease. This could lead to a tighter market balance, providing upward support for prices. Analysts at SunSirs (a Chinese commodity information provider) predict that the domestic methanol spot market is likely to rise again.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.