Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes fluctuated and rose in November. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for seamless tubes of 20# and 108 * 4.5 was 4,592 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, it increased to 4,627.5 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%.

Analysis review

In terms of supply: Due to environmental maintenance in many areas last week, supply of some tube factories had been affected. Most tube factories had increased the frequency of maintenance production lines, but the overall order volume could not achieve production and sales balance, controlling overall losses. It is expected that the production of seamless tubes in December will be in a fluctuating downward trend, and the overall supply of seamless tubes will show a weaker trend of fluctuations.

In terms of demand, driven by the market's "bullish but not bearish" mentality, the enthusiasm for purchasing goods was still good, the number of inquiries had increased, and the overall shipment volume had increased. Subsequent favorable policies were frequent, and the national winter storage plan is expected to be launched in mid to early December. The overall demand will maintain a certain resilience, and it is expected that the demand for seamless tubes will be in a fluctuating trend in December.

In terms of exports: According to the latest statistics from customs, China's exports of seamless tubes reached 430,300 tons in October 2023, a decrease of 7.50% month on month and 2.29% year-on-year; From January to October, China exported a total of 4.7755 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 21.71%.

Market outlook

In summary, since the end of October, macroeconomic favorable policies had been frequently reported, driving up the price of tube billets, and seamless tube prices had also begun to show a slight upward trend. As of November 29th, raw material prices were high, and the cost support for seamless tubes was strong. The production of seamless tubes had decreased, and the inventory in the factory had gradually decreased. The overall supply had narrowed, and the winter storage rhythm is approaching. Demand will maintain a certain degree of resilience. It is expected that the national seamless tube market will experience at fluctuations to be slightly stronger in December.

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