At the beginning of July, the overall consolidation of the domestic ABS market was weak, and the spot prices of some grades fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 7th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10,612.50 RMB/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.12% compared to early July.

Supply level: In early July, the load of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, and the overall load level was adjusted from 66% at the end of last month to around 65%. The weekly average output of over 120,000 tons remains unchanged, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises remains stable at over 200,000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. At the same time, the recent production capacity of the Jinfa new plant in Liaoning has been put into operation, and Haijiang Chemical has resumed operation after maintenance at the end of last month, which has had a certain impact on the supply side support of the industry. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and current inventory is relatively controllable. The supply side provides average support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: As we enter July, the upstream three material market of ABS continues to be weak and has not shown any improvement, which has limited support for the cost side of ABS. In terms of acrylonitrile, at the beginning of the month, the Jieyang unit of Jihua resumed operation, the 400,000 ton unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical increased production, and the 260,000 ton unit of Liaoning Jinfa is planned to restart, resulting in a significant increase in supply. The inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories has risen to over 40,000 tons, and the expected supply growth continues to affect market sentiment. Downstream on-demand procurement results in limited overall demand growth. In the future, there may be variables in the installation of equipment in the north, and the inventory of enterprises is not high, so there may be differences in the price trend between the north and south in the short term. However, the release of new production capacity has suppressed the East China region, and prices may remain relatively stagnant.

In early July, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. The current macroeconomic performance is poor, with insufficient support. There are loose expectations on the supply side, and the overall demand in the downstream synthetic rubber market is biased towards rigid demand, with no significant positive support on the demand side. Overall, under the influence of weak fundamentals, it is expected that the butadiene market will operate weakly.

The recent decline in styrene has continued. The atmosphere in Shandong's local refining of raw material pure benzene is light, and at the same time, East China ports continue to accumulate inventory, causing prices to fall. In addition, there have been no new styrene plant maintenance recently, and some plants have increased their load, resulting in an increase in supply. The overall operating rate of downstream three S is weak, and there is a strong demand for procurement. It is expected that the market will operate weakly in the short term.

On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market has entered the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. The market concerns caused by the deterioration of geopolitics in the Middle East in the early stage have basically dissipated. At the same time, industry players are worried that the possible US tariff policy may slow down market demand, coupled with the expected impact of OPEC's production increase. The cautious atmosphere is pervasive in the market, and the flow of goods is slow. In addition, the domestic inventory position is still relatively high, the supply continues to be loose, and there is a lot of room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side's support for the ABS market.

At the beginning of July, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The overall price of upstream three materials is weak, and the production load of ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, while the demand side is at a low season level. Business analysts believe that the ABS market is unlikely to see any improvement in momentum recently due to the release of new production capacity, fluctuations in crude oil, and the impact of the traditional off-season. The industry's strong supply and weak demand pattern will drag down spot prices in the long term, and it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a consolidation and weak pattern in the short term.

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