Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the lithium carbonate market showed a "roller coaster" trend in August. At the beginning of the month, the SunSirs benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 71,333 RMB/ton, and then the price climbed all the way to 83,733 RMB/ton on the 20th, and then fell to 81,733 RMB/ton; the SunSirs benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 70,333 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, reached a monthly high of 81,166 RMB/ton on the 20th, and fell to 80,166 RMB/ton at the end of the month.
Ningwang mining area halted production, lithium carbonate futures hit daily limit
On July 7, the Yichun Municipal Natural Resources Bureau issued a notice requiring eight lithium mining companies to complete reserve verification reports for changes in mineral types by September 30. On August 9, CATL's Jianxiawo mining area in Jiangxi Province suspended operations due to the expiration of its mining license, a halt that could last for more than three months. The news sparked a sharp market reaction, with the main lithium carbonate futures contract, LC2511, hitting its daily limit on August 11. As of August 26, with the exception of the china clay mine at CATL's Jianxiawo mining area, the mining licenses of the remaining seven mines are all set to expire after 2027. The probability of all mines halting operations during the mining license renewal period was low.
The fundamental oversupply situation remained unchanged, but market sentiment changed suddenly
On August 20th, Jiangte Electric announced the resumption of production at its Yichun Yinli unit. Coupled with expectations of easing overseas supply, the main lithium carbonate futures contract plummeted to its lower limit, closing at 80,980 RMB/ton, down 8%. With newly commissioned domestic production capacity continuing to increase and contract manufacturers improving utilization rates, the price rebound may stimulate the resumption of voluntarily suspended production lines. The actual impact of CATL's temporary production suspension on the supply side was minimal.
Energy storage was booming to offset the automotive off-season
On the demand side, the traditional off-season for new energy vehicles contrasts sharply with the surge in energy storage demand. The power battery sector was showing signs of fatigue, with continued overcapacity pressure in the mid- and low-end markets. Some battery manufacturers still had inventory levels of 4-5 months.
Energy storage demand had become a key driver of lithium carbonate prices. New energy storage capacity increased by 160% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driving a surge in demand for ferrous lithium phosphate (LiFePO4) for energy storage. Ferrous lithium phosphate production was projected to reach 309,200 tons in August, a 3.38% increase from the previous month. Some companies had already booked orders through the first quarter of 2026.
Future outlook:
The lithium carbonate data analyst of SunSirs believes that the lithium carbonate market in August is essentially the product of policy-enforced compliance and market spontaneous regulation. In the long run, the oversupply of lithium carbonate has not changed, and the price may return to fluctuate around the cost line. Specific market changes still need to be paid attention to.
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