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SunSirs: Game between Supply and Demand, China POM Market Stagnant Operation
September 25 2023 11:24:39SunSirs(Selena)

Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stagnant at a high level, with spot prices mainly fluctuating horizontally. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 22, the mixed price of domestic POM was 15,050 RMB/ton, a decrease of +3.97% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of SunSirs, there has been a slight recovery after the recent decline in formaldehyde market prices in the Shandong region. The current narrow range of trading on the market has improved, and the price of raw material methanol has stopped falling and shown an upward trend. However, due to the weak demand in the early stage and the cost pressure, the formaldehyde market in Shandong may not have shaken off its weak trend in the short term.

Recently, the maintenance and resumption of POM devices in China have been mutually reinforcing, and overall, the operating rate has continued to decline, with the industry load dropping to below 63%. In terms of supply, the current inventory position is still acceptable, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, but the profit margins of midstream merchants still need to be digested. At the same time, the recent weak and fluctuating profitability of production enterprises has led to a loosening of strong support for POM supply.

At present, the construction level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and there is still a shortage of goods in the early stage to stimulate. However, as the long holiday approaches, the enterprise's stocking is gradually completed. In addition, recently, the buyer's acceptance of POM prices has decreased, resulting in a decrease in order volume and a continued weakening of on market trading. Overall, the demand side's support for POM spot prices is weak.

The POM market has been stagnant this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants continues to decline, and the tight supply of goods on site remains. Supplier support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, terminal enterprises have entered holiday arrangements, resulting in a decline in operating rates, a decrease in market chasing operations, an increase in resistance, and a lack of on-site trading. The actual profit margin of traders has increased. Overall, the supply side and demand side are currently in a long short game, and it is expected that the POM market in the future may enter a weak operating stage.

 

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