To date, China operates 11 POM production facilities with a combined capacity of 660,000 tons. Among these, Yankuang Luhua's Phase II 40,000-ton/year unit is currently undergoing maintenance shutdown and is expected to resume production shortly. Notably, its Phase I 40,000-ton/year unit is also scheduled for maintenance in the latter half of this month. The remaining producers are currently operating at over 90% capacity or at full capacity, maintaining relatively high overall supply levels. Additionally, two long-term idle POM units with a combined capacity of 100,000 tons have yet to determine their restart dates, limiting their short-term impact on market supply.
In terms of capacity changes, 2024 has seen a significant acceleration in capacity expansion within China's POM industry. With new facilities from Tianjin Bohua, Hengli Petrochemical, Dapoli Engineering Plastics, and Xinjiang Xinlianxin coming online, the industry is entering a concentrated expansion phase. Notably, Xinjiang alone accounts for 210,000 tons of new capacity in this expansion cycle—representing 28% of the national total and driving overall capacity growth to 38%. This rapid expansion will profoundly reshape future market supply dynamics, likely intensifying industry competition.
Xinjiang Bingneng's 40,000-ton-per-year POM facility is scheduled to start production in December 2025. The project's completion will further expand China's total POM capacity, with the new capacity accounting for approximately 5% of the current total. Compared to previous years, the growth rate has shown signs of slowing. However, despite the overall deceleration, the trend of homogeneous competition within the industry persists, and market competition is expected to intensify further as a result.
Over the next five years, China's POM capacity expansion will follow a pattern of “initial concentration followed by deceleration.” Based on current plans, new capacity will primarily be released between 2026 and 2027, with an estimated combined annual increase of 320,000 tons over those two years. However, domestic POM capacity expansion is expected to slow significantly after 2028.
Looking ahead, China's POM market is projected to add 380,000 tons/year of effective capacity between 2026 and 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.21%. This marks a 12.26 percentage point decline compared to the previous five-year period. While total supply continues to expand, the growth rate has clearly moderated. Amid intensifying homogeneous competition within the industry, certain products will face a survival-of-the-fittest scenario, with price competition becoming increasingly fierce. Consequently, the commissioning pace of new facilities is expected to gradually slow down. However, this trend will also drive the domestic POM industry to accelerate its transformation and upgrading toward mid-to-high-end segments, pursuing a differentiated development strategy.
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