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SunSirs: Demand sharply Reduced, and Expectation of Natural Rubber Rebounds in Short Term
February 05 2020 12:35:03SunSirs(Selena)

On February 3, when the domestic futures exchange opened trading, commodity futures fell in a large area, with more than 20 varieties falling. For natural rubber, the main contract 2005 closed at 11,145, down 1 105, down 9.02%, and the inventory on that day was 236 760 tons, up 600 tons; for rubber 20, the contract closed at 9 350, down 930, down 9.05%, and the inventory on that day was 20 463 tons, up 1 008 tons.

Along with the decline and stop of rubber futures, the put options of rubber 2005 in the previous exchange rose sharply, among which the put options with the exercise price of 12,250 rose by more than 1,000%.

On the spot, natural rubber continued to be weak before and after the Spring Festival. Affected by the epidemic, the National Spring Festival holiday was extended, and downstream enterprises started work late, with little demand. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs(100ppi. Com), the main quotation of year 18 Baodao / Guangken full latex in Shanghai was 10,950 RMB/ ton and that of Qingdao was 10,950 RMB/ ton; the main quotation of year 18 Sinochem / Wuzhishan full latex in Qingdao was 10,950 RMB/ ton; the main quotation of year 18 Baodao Tianjin was 10,950 RMB/ ton.

In terms of rubber production, at present, the domestic production area is in the cut-off period. The rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia are affected by drought, the production of raw rubber has not increased significantly, the upstream of rubber is not significantly affected by the epidemic, and the overall supply continues to be weak before the festival. It is reported that during the Spring Festival holiday, the external price of natural rubber fell sharply, and the closing price of RSS3 on January 31 was 7.3% lower than that on January 23; in Thailand, the price of glue was still around 40 baht, and the exchange rate of baht and RMB was devalued to a large extent, so the exchange rate did not have a significant impact on the import cost.

In terms of demand, the downstream enterprises of natural rubber were delayed to return to work due to the impact of the epidemic, and the start-up of tire enterprises was generally after February 10. At present, the transportation path resistance of bulk goods is relatively large, and the short-term demand for spot rubber is significantly reduced compared with that of previous years. At present, there are strong worries about the situation, and the price pressure is inevitable.

In the future, as far as the current situation is concerned, the output of natural rubber has not increased in a large amount, which is good, and the weak downstream demand is negative. Combined with the particularity of the current situation, the market will remain bearish in the short term. When the epidemic is over and the demand situation is improved, the enterprises will resume work and logistics will recover, which is afraid to usher in the strong procurement in the downstream. Pay close attention to the epidemic control and the resumption of work.


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