On Monday, ice Canada rapeseed futures were closed.
Summary of views
The new planting area of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease, and the overall progress of spring sowing is relatively slow. There is still uncertainty in the output of rapeseed in the new season, which supports the price of adding seeds and the cost of rapeseed meal. Meanwhile, the USDA said in its monthly report that although this year's soybean harvest will be a record, due to the sharp rise in demand, supply is still tight, boosting domestic meal prices. Domestically, as the weather warms up and aquaculture enters the peak season, the demand for rapeseed meal increases. Moreover, the pressing capacity of oil plants is low, and there are less deliverable rapeseed meal, supporting the rapeseed meal market. However, China's rapeseed is about to enter the harvest season, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase. The total amount of vegetable meal announced by the Customs was 1689375 tons in the same period last month, an increase of 16897.23 tons over the same period in 2021. The output of domestic vegetable meal crushing plants continued to decrease, making up for the high level of import in the same period. In addition, soybean meal in some oil plants has the situation of expanding storage, and the pressure of protein meal increases. On the disk, rapeseed meal opened low and went low, and the warehouse reduction phenomenon is obvious. Let's wait and see for the time being.
Canada's new rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease, and the overall progress of spring sowing is relatively slow. There is still uncertainty in the yield of rapeseed in the new season, which continues to support the seed price. Although Indonesia lifted the sales ban on May 23, it still set sales obligations in the domestic market to continue to support oil prices. At the same time, the drastic fluctuation of the international crude oil market increases the repeatability of the trend of the oil market. In the domestic market, the demand for rapeseed oil was significantly weaker than that in the same period of previous years, and the listing of domestic rapeseed led to a certain suppression of the price of domestic rapeseed oil. However, the purchase price of domestic new seeds this year is high, and the data released by China Customs show that the total import of rapeseed oil in April 2022 was 70000 tons, a new low in three years. At the same time, the import of soybean oil was only 10000 tons and the import of palm oil was 120000 tons. The sharp decline in the quantity of imported oil and the current situation of low inventory are important supports for the high operation of the domestic oil market. On the disk, due to the influence of Indonesian policies, the futures price of vegetable oil has strengthened with palm oil, but the position continues to decrease. Let's wait and see for the moment.
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