According to data from SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,466 RMB/tonne on August 28 and rose to 2,502 RMB/tonne by September 4, an increase of 1.46%.

Low inventories of raw rapeseed at coastal crushing plants have constrained operating rates, keeping spot stocks of rapeseed meal low and providing price support. However, with expected increases in the arrival of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal, combined with forecasts of a bumper new-season rapeseed harvest overseas, there is potential for a gradual easing of supply constraints in the future.

The peak season for aquaculture is drawing to a close; while there remains some immediate demand for feed input in the short term, usage is expected to decline seasonally as temperatures drop. Feed mills are primarily purchasing on an as-needed basis. The price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is influencing formulation substitutions, and limited growth in livestock and poultry feed demand is insufficient to offset the decline in aquaculture-related consumption.

In the short term, low inventory levels are supporting a volatile market trend for rapeseed meal, with a certain price floor established. However, the combination of increased future supply and weakening aquaculture demand is capping upside potential, making a significant unilateral price surge unlikely. Key factors to monitor include rapeseed import arrivals, crushing plant operating rates, and changes in aquaculture feed usage.

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