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SunSirs: Negative Factors on the Supply and Demand Side, which may Restrict the Price of PTA in the Chinese Market
January 21 2022 08:35:09SunSirs(Linda)

On January 20, the domestic PTA market fell slightly. The average market price in East China was 5,347 yuan / ton, down 0.21% from the previous trading day and up 38.86% year-on-year. The main force of PTA futures 2205 closed at 5372 and settled at 5374, down 34, or 0.63%.

In terms of supply, with the recent restart of several sets of plants, the PTA industry has increased to more than 80%, and Fuhaichuang's 4.5 million-ton large-scale PTA plant is about to restart. Yisheng New Materials plans to test its new 3.3 million-ton plant at the end of January, and the PTA supply is expected to increase. , resulting in a narrow decline in the market.

Oil prices hit a nearly seven-year high on expectations of tight supply, after a fire in the Iraq-Turkey pipeline temporarily disrupted transportation, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil growth in 2022. As of January 19, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was $85.80 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $88.44 per barrel.

Under the boost of raw materials, the prices of downstream polyester filament factories rose steadily, but the load of terminal looms dropped to a seasonal low, and the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to around 41%. In fact, the actual purchasing power is not large.

From the cost side, the current crude oil is easy to rise and hard to fall under low inventories, so there is still a push for PTA. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal demand is expected to continue to weaken, the supply of PTA itself is under pressure, and there are many negative factors on the supply and demand side, which may restrict the price of PTA.

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