1. Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on June 15 was 3603.333 RMB/ton, up 1.6% before the festival (on the 11th), down 0.64% at the beginning of the month, down 8.62% compared with that at the beginning of the month, and up 43.94% compared with the same period last year.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the price of the domestic LNG market decreased frequently in the off-season. The 15th was the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The domestic LNG market was very popular in a large area. The price of liquid in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia, and other places increased generally, with the range of 30-80 RMB/ton. The price adjustment mentality of liquid plants was relatively positive, and the overall market rose, Bid farewell to the previous decline for the time being. Starting from June 15, the price of raw gas in the direct supply liquid plant of northern PetroChina was 2-2.04 RMB/m³, and the cost price rose, boosting the market atmosphere. At the same time, after the festival, the logistics recovered, the demand for downstream replenishment increased, and the prices were continuously reduced in the early stage. Based on the cost consideration, the price of liquid plants increased after the festival but restricted by the off-season factors, the increase was not big.

On June 15, the domestic liquefied natural gas market was booming, with 3500-3650 RMB/ton in Inner Mongolia, 3580-3740 RMB/ton in Shaanxi, 3650-3750 RMB/ton in Shanxi, 3560-3630 RMB/ton in Ningxia, 3750-3850 RMB/ton in Henan and 3620-3730 RMB/ton in Hebei. The liquid prices in various regions were increased to varying degrees.

Downstream products have mixed ups and downs:

Methanol, the main closing price of methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on June 15 was 2514 RMB/ton, up 2.57% in the day. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market is warming up. Before the festival, some traders make up for the air and the downstream goods to support the mentality of the industry. After the festival, the new prices in Northwest China may be relatively strong, and at present, they are generally bullish. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of June 15, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong Province was 2535 RMB/ton, with the price falling 7.06% on a month-on-year basis, up 56.48% year on year. Crude oil is strong and the market mentality is good. Methanol analysts of SunSirs expect that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise in a narrow range in the short term.

Urea, in the middle of June, the market of urea in Shandong may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of SunSirs believe that at present, the agricultural demand has declined, the industrial demand has risen slightly, and the urea supply is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be in short supply in the short term, but the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

Dichloromethane, on June 15, the market quotation of methane chloride in the Shandong area was slightly adjusted, and the quotation of manufacturers was adjusted. The main factory quotation of dichloromethane was about 3970-4050 RMB/ton, and the main factory quotation of trichloromethane was about 4350-4440 RMB/ton. A small number of downstream inquiries were received. The price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong is strong, and the cost is supported by dichloromethane; In addition to the current low inventory of methane chloride, it is expected that dichloromethane will continue to be high and strong in the future.

3. Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of SunSirs believe that: after the Dragon Boat Festival, logistics recovery, downstream replenishment demand increase, at the same time, the price of raw gas rises, the cost support is strong, coupled with the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the liquid plant is in a strong price support mood after the festival based on the cost consideration, and it is expected that it will continue to push up in the short term, but in the off-season, the power to continue to rise is insufficient.

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