1. Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of the SunSirs, the average market price on February 28 was about 576.75 RMB/ton, and on May 13 was about 997.5 RMB/ton, up 72.95% and 110.67% over the same period last year. On May 13, the thermal coal commodity index was 120.18, 2.41 points higher than yesterday, 3.86% lower than the highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19) in the cycle, and 168.86% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
2. Analysis of Influencing Factors
In March, the price of steam coal began to rise. First, the safety inspection of the main production areas at the supply side was strengthened, and the super capacity production was strictly restricted. The shortage of coal management tickets restricted the supply. The mining areas in Shaanxi maintain a low inventory state, and the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance due to the coal management ticket in Inner Mongolia increases and the supply decreases. At the end of the month, the number of coal mines stopped for maintenance increased, and the overall inventory in the mine was small. Platforms and traders have high purchasing enthusiasm, and coal is in a tight state. Second, the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas picked up, and the inventory maintained a slow decline. However, industrial power consumption is dominant and the daily consumption is high. Some data show that the number of days of coal inventory available in the national key power plants is about 14 days. The downstream trading atmosphere is relatively strong, power plants also began to accept high price coal, receiving goods is also more positive than before, transaction increased.
After May Day, the average market price of steam coal was 826.25 RMB/ton on May 1 and 997.5 RMB/ton on May 13, with a rise of 20.73% in half a month. During the May Day festival, the main producing areas of steam coal maintained a stable state, and the pit sales were in good condition. The coal price in the Ordos, Inner Mongolia was temporarily stable. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the coal supply was generally in a tight state. Downstream power plants: in terms of power plants, the coal inventory of power plants is at a low level. Some data show that as of May 12, the six major coastal power plants have a total inventory of 13.342 million tons, daily consumption of 698000 tons, and available days of 19.1 days. In May, power plants are willing to replenish their stocks. Traders are reluctant to sell at high prices and optimistic about the future. At present, port traders are still reluctant to sell and have a strong attitude of supporting prices. Port prices are relatively strong and market sentiment is relatively high as a whole.
SunSirs analysts believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal in the producing area is in a tight state. After the May Day holiday, there is no obvious increase in the storage of coal in the downstream power plants, and there is still a demand for replenishing the storage. And the peak summer is coming, so there is still a strong demand for replenishing the storage of thermal coal, which is supported by thermal coal. Moreover, the market sentiment is relatively hot, and traders are more optimistic about the later period. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is still relatively strong, and the demand of the downstream market is more specific.
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