Since the beginning of summer, the continuous high temperature weather is reshaping the domestic coal market pattern. With the surge in air conditioning loads in various regions, a change in energy supply and demand caused by meteorological factors is unfolding.
On the demand side of electricity, the continuously rising electricity consumption data is particularly prominent. Taking the East China region as an example, the load of Jiangsu power grid has exceeded 127 million kilowatts, achieving a year-on-year increase of nearly 10%. Zhejiang and other regions are facing the dual challenge of the early end of the rainy season and the combination of high temperature weather. In this situation, the coal consumption of power generation enterprises continues to rise, and some power plants have to accept small premium purchases to ensure the supply of "food" for the units.
The changes in port inventory are also worth paying attention to. The latest data shows that the inventory of the important coal transit hub around the Bohai Sea has fallen to the range of 27.1 million tons, a significant contraction compared to the same period last year. An interesting phenomenon has emerged in the market: due to the compression of profit margins in the shipping process, traders generally show a "reluctance to sell" mentality, especially for high-quality coal with over 5,000 kcal, the transaction price has stabilized at 560 RMB/ton platform. The price of 4,500 kcal coal also generally increases by 5-10 RMB/ton.
From a supply side perspective, the recent heavy rainfall in major production areas has posed significant challenges to open-pit coal mining. Although the safety inspection at the beginning of the month has come to an end, the progress of capacity recovery still lags behind expectations. It is worth noting that although the excellent performance of clean energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics has shared some of the power supply pressure, the traditional thermal power's role as a backup guarantee is still irreplaceable in the face of extreme high temperatures.
Looking ahead to the future, the meteorological department's forecast has added more variables to the market. It is expected that most parts of the country will face sustained high temperatures this summer, which may continue to drive up electricity demand. Against the backdrop of ineffective replenishment of port inventory and structural shortage of high-quality coal sources, market trading sentiment continues to heat up. Industry insiders generally believe that the current coal price has strong upward support, and the future trend will closely follow temperature changes, policy guidance, and end-user procurement strategies.
This weather driven energy supply-demand game vividly illustrates the subtle correlation between climate factors and commodity markets. In the context of energy transition, traditional fossil fuels are still playing their irreplaceable market role.
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