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SunSirs: Downstream Demand Increases, Thermal Coal Price Rises
March 09 2021 13:21:00SunSirs(Selena)

According to SunSirs, the price of thermal coal rose last week. At the beginning of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 573 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 608.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 6.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.47%. On March 7, the thermal coal commodity index was 73.31, unchanged from the previous day, down 41.35% from the cycle's highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 64.00% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Now the overall production capacity is slightly tight. Due to the recovery of downstream industries, the demand for coal is increasing, and the number of coal hauling cars in coal mines is increasing significantly. The sales situation of mining areas in Shaanxi continued to improve, and the coal mines in the main producing areas increased.

As the weather warms, the demand for civil power has dropped. However, as the industrial enterprises in the lower reaches of thermal coal have resumed normal production, the demand for thermal coal has increased, the industrial power consumption is relatively strong, and the daily consumption of power plants has rebounded to a certain extent. The decline of thermal coal inventory drives the demand of power plants for thermal coal replenishment. Some data show that the inventory of power plants has fallen. Affected by the recent delay in purchasing and the rise of daily consumption, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces has dropped from 28 million tons to 27 million tons. But now traders are more wait-and-see attitude, price is very selling.

According to the data released by the China National Bureau of statistics on March 4, the national coal price was stable and fell in late February.

SunSirs analysts believe that: at this stage, the daily consumption of power plants is rising, which drives the demand of power plants for thermal coal replenishment, and traders mainly sell at low prices. The price of thermal coal may have favorable support, and the price will rise. However, at this stage, the overall downstream demand has not been released, and the overall acceptance of the high price of thermal coal is limited. On the whole, the price of thermal coal may keep rising during the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited on the whole, and it depends on the downstream market demand.

 

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