Regarding supply and costs, the market continues to monitor the approval progress of new RKAB quotas for 2026. While some new quotas are gradually being approved and entering the market, the total volume of new quotas for the year has not yet been officially announced. As the approval process advances, market focus has shifted from quota approvals to actual mine output and nickel ore shipment volumes. A new HPM pricing formula for nickel ore took effect on September 15, lowering the benchmark price for low-grade limonite. With the gradual release of new RKAB-authorized supply, the price of 1.2% Ni limonite faces downward pressure. Due to water shortages caused by El Niño, some RKEF nickel pig iron (NPI) production lines at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) reduced operating loads by approximately 30%–40% starting September 22. IMIP stated that while some smelters have cut output, there is no full production halt; the park and enterprises are actively seeking alternative water sources. Data from Mysteel indicates that MHP prices fell over the past week, driving down production costs for nickel sulfate derived from MHP, whereas high-grade nickel matte prices rose, pushing up production costs for nickel sulfate derived from matte. Although profit margins for nickel sulfate producers have narrowed, production enthusiasm remains intact.
On the demand side, the U.S. Department of Commerce postponed the deadline for preliminary determinations in its countervailing duty investigations regarding welded stainless steel line pipe and pressure pipe from India and Turkey; the original October 8 deadline was moved to December 14, 2026, with the extension officially taking effect on September 21. India's finished stainless steel market remains generally resilient, supported by stable demand, firm scrap prices, and high raw material costs; however, nickel price volatility and high freight rates have prompted buyers to maintain a cautious purchasing strategy. Replenishment demand ahead of Diwali is expected to pick up gradually, providing some support for future market activity. Export quotes for Indian stainless steel long products have remained generally stable, with overseas buying constrained by high freight costs, tight scrap supplies, and rising alloy costs. Buying interest in the European market has been particularly sluggish; uncertainty regarding the implementation details of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and quota-related policies has made buyers cautious about placing new orders. Domestically, actual end-user demand has not rebounded, overall trading volume remains limited, and downstream players maintain a pessimistic wait-and-see attitude regarding the market outlook. In August, an increase in domestic new energy vehicle production drove a month-on-month rise in the output of ternary precursors and ternary materials.
Regarding inventories, as of September 25, nickel stocks across 27 sampled domestic warehouses stood at 109,136 tonnes, down 5% month-on-month. On the same day, LME nickel stocks totaled 294,946 tonnes, up 6% month-on-month. As of September 24, SHFE nickel warrants stood at 92,518 tonnes, down 9% month-on-month.
Looking ahead, the release of RKAB quotas in Indonesia, the lowering of HPM (Mining Work Plan and Budget) targets, and sluggish stainless steel demand are weighing on nickel prices, while domestic inventory destocking and increased ternary precursor production are providing support. (Source: Sina Finance)
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