As of mid-September, global chemical prices are undergoing volatile adjustments. A combination of strong fluctuations in crude oil prices, regional supply-demand mismatches, and shifting downstream purchasing patterns has led to a marked divergence in prices across different product categories. Certain basic raw materials remain resilient, supported by maintenance-related supply constraints, while synthetic rubber has strengthened against the trend; conversely, polyolefins are facing downward pressure at high price levels due to weak demand. Market caution is mounting, with trading primarily driven by essential restocking needs and intensified price negotiations for commodities; in the short term, chemical prices are expected to seek equilibrium amidst the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.

Crude Oil Drives Up Costs; Maintenance Supports Certain Categories

As the primary cost driver for the chemical industry chain, international oil prices have recently surged, fueled by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Events such as the suspension of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline following an attack and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude futures back above $100 per barrel, providing significant cost-side support for bulk basic chemicals. Meanwhile, chemical plants across various global regions have entered their autumn maintenance cycles, helping to offset the pressure of ample supply and leading to divergent price trends across regional markets.

In North America, multiple ethylene plants are scheduled for maintenance in September and October; with spot supplies expected to tighten, ethylene spot prices have stabilized, thereby supporting downstream polyolefin quotes. However, the lack of growth in downstream orders and limited end-user acceptance of high-priced raw materials have capped the upside potential for feedstock prices. In Europe, rising energy costs—specifically high natural gas prices—have driven up methanol production costs; with some plants operating at reduced loads and regional spot supplies tightening, methanol prices in Rotterdam have strengthened slightly.

In the Asia-Pacific region, supplies of inorganic chemicals remain plentiful, though titanium dioxide is currently experiencing a new wave of price increases. After September 11, more than twenty Chinese manufacturers collectively raised export prices for titanium dioxide; for instance, LB Group increased its international market price by $100 per tonne. The aromatics sector was supported by maintenance activities; the operating rate for paraxylene (PX) fell to 76.8%—lower than the same period last year—while the spot basis for purified terephthalic acid (PTA) strengthened. Related products saw a slight rebound, though they have retreated somewhat in recent days. On September 21, the price of PTA in Southeast Asia stood at $954 per tonne, while the price in India rose to $1,011 per tonne.

Overall, overseas basic raw materials are characterized by cost-push pressure and supply-side support, with plant maintenance serving as the key short-term variable. However, as end-user demand has not seen a substantial recovery, the rise in raw material prices remains constrained, making a sustained, significant rally unlikely.

Divergence in polymer materials intensifies; weak demand suppresses rebounds

Compared to basic raw materials, polymer materials such as plastics and synthetic rubber have shown significant divergence in price trends, with end-user consumption acting as the core issue. Downstream sectors—including packaging, home appliances, and automotive manufacturing—are operating at sluggish levels with high inventory, leading enterprises to adopt a "purchase-as-needed" strategy that suppresses most price quotes. Prices for polyethylene and polypropylene have fluctuated at high levels, with trading dominated by small orders driven by immediate needs. Although producers have attempted to stabilize prices by cutting output, the sheer scale of production capacity means these cuts are insufficient to reverse the oversupply situation, leaving little momentum for a rebound. For example, on September 21, the price of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) in Northwest Europe rose 1.21% from the beginning of the month to $1,256 per tonne, while the price in the Far East rose 3.53% to $1,317 per tonne.

Trends within the synthetic rubber sector have diverged, though the sector as a whole has performed better than plastics. Operating rates in the tire industry remain moderate, while prices for styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (BR) saw sharp increases in early September. In Asia, the price of styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) rose from $1,925/tonne in early August to $2,329/tonne by mid-September, an increase of 20.93%; during the same period, polybutadiene rubber (PBR) prices climbed from $1,843/tonne to $2,306/tonne, a rise of 25.1%.

The polyester industry chain is also under pressure; raw material prices fluctuate in tandem with crude oil, while textile orders remain weak and product sales sluggish, forcing producers to offer price concessions to move inventory. A recovery in end-market orders will take time, with little improvement expected in the short term.

Bull-Bear Tug-of-War Continues; Focus on Three Key Variables

Looking ahead at short-term global chemical price trends, the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces will persist, with market performance driven primarily by three core variables: crude oil prices, supply, and end-market demand. Crude oil prices determine the cost baseline for the chemical industry chain, while geopolitical tensions and production cuts by oil-producing nations may introduce periodic disruptions.

Should oil prices decline again, cost support for overseas chemical products would weaken further. On the supply side, the progress of autumn plant maintenance is a crucial short-term variable; if the scale of maintenance exceeds market expectations, certain products currently in a tight supply-demand balance could see temporary price hikes. Conversely, if maintenance is delayed or plants restart more quickly than anticipated, supply pressure will intensify once more.

Demand is the key factor influencing medium- to long-term market trends. The manufacturing recovery in Europe and the US remains sluggish, limiting the growth of export orders. The global chemical market is currently characterized by a fragile balance; the likelihood of sharp, unilateral price surges or collapses is relatively low, and market divergence across product categories is becoming the norm. Enterprises generally favor low-inventory strategies, closely monitoring plant operations and macroeconomic indicators while aligning purchasing and sales with actual demand. As the fourth quarter approaches—traditionally a low-demand season—there is limited room for overall chemical price increases, and market participants must remain vigilant against downside risks stemming from consumption falling short of expectations. Overall, the market is currently shaped by a complex interplay of cost-push pressures, supply contraction, and sluggish demand, leading to increasingly pronounced divergence across product categories. In the short term, plant maintenance and geopolitical risks will continue to provide a floor for certain raw material prices, yet weak end-user consumption remains a drag on the broader market. With the off-season for chemical demand approaching in the fourth quarter, significant market-wide trends are unlikely to emerge; moving forward, close monitoring of international oil price fluctuations, global plant maintenance schedules, and manufacturing activity trends overseas is essential to mitigate the risks associated with market volatility.

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