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SunSirs: Positive News Boosted PTA to Stop Falling and Begin Rebounding
October 25 2019 11:06:40SunSirs(Linda)

According to SunSirs’ price monitoring, on Oct 24, the domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly, the average price was 5,004RMB/t, 1.51% higher than that of last trading day, 31.13% lower year on year. In terms of futures, TAM went higher as well, the closing price of TA2001 was 4,942 RMB/t, 64RMB/t (1.31%) higher than that of the last trading day. Daily trading volume increased by 158600 to 1414600 lots, and position decreased by 106,712 to 1,502,300 lots.

Recently, several large-scale units are involved in maintenance, resulting in PTA load dropping to 89%. Next week, PTA supply side unit maintenance and restart coexist, Honggang petrochemical unit is restarted, Pengwei petrochemical unit is restarted; Hengli petrochemical unit 2 is planned to be overhauled on Oct 26, Ningbo Yisheng, Jiaxing petrochemical and Hailun Petrochemical still have unit maintenance plans in November and December.

Enterprise Name

Device Capacity

Device’s Recent Change

Ningbo Yisheng

200

Planned maintenance in Nov

220

Short stop from Oct 18 to 21

Jiaxing petrochemical

150

Planned maintenance in Nov

Hailun Petrochemical

150

Planned maintenance in Dec

Honggang Petrochemicals

150

Overhaul on Oct 14, restart on 28

Pengwei Petrochemicals

90

In shutdown on Oct 18, restart in a week

Yisheng Dalian

225

Load reduction operation, restart in 15 days

Hengli Dalian

220

In shutdown and overhaul (Oct 7-18)

220

Planned maintenance on Oct 26

Jialong Petrochemicals

60

In shutdown and overhaul (Aug 2), restart date to be determined.

In addition, from the perspective of new production capacity, Xin Feng Ming’s 2.5 million tons of equipment, of which 1.25 million tons line is planned to produce grade products early next week. The single unit test run of the PTA project with an annual output of 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Petrochemical is coming to an end, which marks that the PTA device linkage test run is about to start. It will help the feed-test of PTA, and the market's worry about the supply side will bring certain pressure on prices.

In terms of cost, the crude oil storage in the U.S. dropped unexpectedly, and the overnight oil price rebounded strongly. The closing price of PX in Asia rose by 4USD/t, and the closing price was 765-767USD/t (FOB, Korea) and 785-787USD/t (CFR, China), which had certain positive mews. But the domestic PX production capacity is in the expansion cycle, the processing gap remains low, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the price of the mainstream factory is 6,800RMB/t.

The rebound of raw materiasl has boosted the polyester related products in the downstream. The prices of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable and warm, with the increase of 50-100RMB/t for some specifications. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) was 7,150-7,300RMB/t, DTY (150D/48F low elastic) was 8,750-9,200RMB/t, FDY (150D /96F) was 7,300-7,550RMB/t. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained around 77%, and there was no obvious progress in the terminal, so the market was still cautious.

An analyst form Sunirs believes that in summary, the recent progress in crude oil upward, PTA maintenance and Sino US economic and trade consultation have brought some support to PTA prices in the short term. However, as the new production capacity is approaching and the downstream demand is weak, the accumulated storage pressure is prominent, PTA is still likely to fall in the medium and long term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

 

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