On November 30, the natural rubber commodity index was 43.17, up 0.5 points from the previous day, 56.83% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 58.25% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
During September to November, the mainstream price of natural rubber increased first, then adjusted and then rebounded rapidly.
In terms of supply, China's domestic area has been on the edge of natural rubber cutting. Yunnan Province has generally stopped cutting this month. Some Hainan production areas will stop at the end of next month, and a small part will continue to stop in January. Domestic rubber supply is limited. According to the local seasonal factors, Southeast Asia is the peak period of rubber production. However, this year's bad weather conditions have a great impact on the local rubber output. In southern Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and other regions, there are even waterlogging. Under the influence of heavy rainfall, it is difficult to carry out the tapping work, and the raw material prices have risen sharply again. At the same time, according to the International Rubber Conference (IRCO), rubber trees on plantations in southwest Thailand have recently been affected by a new Defoliation Disease. As of November, the total reported disaster area may be as high as 9,000 hectares, equivalent to about 132,000 tons of annual production. And defoliation can also be transmitted through the air, so it is likely to spread to the whole Thailand and surrounding countries.
In terms of demand, from November, some tire enterprises were limited by environmental protection requirements, and their operation situation was affected. In addition to the severe epidemic situation and logistics impact in foreign countries, the operating rate of tire enterprises in early November was slightly weaker than that of last month. Recently, the State Council has decided to launch a new round of automobile going to the countryside and exchanging old cars for new ones. The policy support and demand are good, which will boost the rubber market.
SunSirs analysis believes that, on the basis of the continuous decline of domestic and foreign supply side output and the continuous improvement of demand side, combined with the recent macro situation, sudden weather conditions, favorable policies and the trend of natural rubber in the same period of previous years, it is expected that the trend of natural rubber will maintain a strong shock trend in China.
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