The current global polypropylene market is characterized by a pattern of continuously tightening overseas supply, international prices hovering at high levels, domestic plant maintenance providing supply-side support, persistent resilience in cost fundamentals, and pressure stemming from the traditional off-season for downstream industries. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have restricted regional cargo availability, leading to a concentration of global orders shifting toward China. Domestically, the volume of plant maintenance remains high; while operating rates have rebounded slightly, overall production output has declined year-on-year. Social inventories are accumulating slowly, and the spot market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between cost-side support and weakening demand, maintaining a trend of high-level fluctuation.

I. Overseas Polypropylene Market Trends: Supply Tightens; Prices Remain Firm at High Levels

Overseas polypropylene supply remains consistently tight. Unstable plant operations and logistical disruptions in the Middle East have diminished the region's capacity to export cargo. Consequently, supply deficits have widened in regions traditionally reliant on Middle Eastern sources—such as Southeast Asia and South Asia—driving a steady upward trend in Asian spot prices. CFR Southeast Asia and CFR Far East price quotes both recorded modest increases during the week. Supply-demand dynamics in European and American markets remain relatively balanced; however, supported by high crude oil prices on the cost side, prices in these regions continue to hover near their annual peaks. With the global supply landscape undergoing a restructuring, China has emerged as the core supplier filling overseas deficits, leading to a significant increase in the international market's reliance on Chinese-sourced cargo.

II. Export Data: Substantial Growth in Q1; Net Export Status Established

According to customs data, China's cumulative exports of polypropylene in primary forms totaled 939,900 tons during the first quarter (January–March) of 2026. This represents a substantial year-on-year increase of 28.34% compared to the 732,400 tons exported during the same period in 2025. In March alone, exports reached 405,500 tons—a month-on-month increase of 66.12% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85%—marking a new monthly high in recent years. Export volumes during the same period in 2025 were notably low; however, driven by the demand created by overseas supply deficits, exports have surged this year. China has officially transitioned into a net exporter of polypropylene, with major destinations including markets in Southeast Asia and South Asia, such as Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. Consequently, overseas demand has now become a critical supporting variable for the domestic market. III. Domestic Capacity and Supply This Week: Maintenance Activity Remains High; Operating Rates Rebound from Lows

Total domestic polypropylene capacity exceeds 49 million tons. With May marking the peak season for plant maintenance, supply continues to contract. The industry operating rate saw a slight rebound to 62.81%, up 3.2 percentage points month-on-month, though still down 12.98 percentage points year-on-year. May production output is projected at 2.8648 million tons—an increase of 8.88% month-on-month, but a decrease of 12.49% year-on-year. Operating loads for oil-based and PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) units remain low due to the dual impact of geopolitical factors and scheduled maintenance; meanwhile, some coal-based production lines also have maintenance plans in place. Overall supply remains at a low level, with production output seeing a modest recovery only in regions such as South China, East China, and North China as specific production units restart operations.

IV. Today's Spot Prices and Market Fluctuations (May 15)

Today, domestic polypropylene spot prices underwent a high-level consolidation with a slight downward bias. Quotes for mainstream grades remained largely stable, showing only minor declines. Market activity was dominated by purchases driven by immediate, rigid demand, resulting in light overall transaction volume.

SunSirs Benchmark Price: PP (Fiber Grade) at 9,900.00 RMB/ton; daily increase of 0.38%; monthly increase of 1.15%.

Mainstream Quotes: East China (Wire Drawing Grade) at 9,500–9,600 RMB/ton; North China at 9,450–9,550 RMB/ton; South China at 9,550–9,650 RMB/ton.

Fluctuation Characteristics: The market fluctuated within a narrow range during the morning session. In the afternoon, prices retreated slightly as cost-side support weakened. Downstream buyers demonstrated significant resistance to high price levels, and overall market sentiment remained heavily wait-and-see.

V. Inventory Status: Social Inventories Accumulate Slightly; Pressure Remains Manageable

Domestic polypropylene social inventories continued their trend of slight accumulation. Inventories in major storage hubs rose marginally week-on-week, while remaining at a moderate level compared to the same period last year. Upstream petrochemical inventories remain at manageable levels, and port inventories are stable. Downstream factories currently hold relatively low raw material inventories, adhering primarily to a "buy-as-needed" procurement strategy. Although supply has contracted, insufficient demand follow-through during the downstream industry's off-season has slowed down inventory destocking, thereby exerting downward pressure on spot price gains. VI. Upstream and Downstream Pricing and Demand Landscape

Upstream crude oil and propane prices are fluctuating at high levels, maintaining resilient cost support. Propylene prices remain firm; however, profit margins for both oil-based and PDH-based production processes continue to be squeezed, leading manufacturers to demonstrate a strong inclination to hold prices firm. Downstream demand shows distinct divergence: traditional sectors—such as plastic weaving, injection molding, and BOPP—have entered their seasonal off-peak period, characterized by low operating rates and purchasing activity dampened by high prices. Conversely, demand for high-end specialty materials—including modified plastics, metallocene grades, and high-transparency resins—remains relatively robust, thereby underpinning the firm pricing of these specialized products.

VII. Future Market Outlook

Mid-to-Late May,driven by tight overseas supply, domestic plant maintenance shutdowns, elevated raw material costs, and the downstream off-peak season, polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels . While supply-side contractions offer price support, the persistence of the demand off-season and the gradual accumulation of inventories limit upside potential; conversely, downside risk remains limited.

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