According to SunSirs price monitoring, the domestic PTA spot market recently showed a slight rebound. As of November 18, the average domestic PTA spot market price was 3,256 yuan/ton, up 4.41% from November 9 and down 32.04% year-on-year. In the futures market, PTA main futures (2101) closed up on November 18, and the main futures closed at 3416, up 30 from the previous trading day, or 0.89%. The strong crude oil and speculative bargain-hunting mentality under the low PTA price support the current price.
According to the recent domestic PTA equipment maintenance situation, the domestic PTA equipment maintenance plan has been significantly reduced in November. At the beginning of the month, Yangzi Petrochemical began to maintain 350,000 tons, and the restart time is yet to be determined; Yadong Petrochemical’s 700,000 tons began to perform maintenance on the 13th for 15 days; Hanbang Petrochemical The load of 2.2 million tons was reduced to 60-70% on the 13th and returned to normal on the 14th. Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million tons of maintenance began on November 17 for about 5 days. The start-up load of the PTA industry remains at a high level of over 86%, and the accumulation of inventory is expected to increase. The current PTA social inventory is nearly 4 million tons, a substantial increase of about 2.6 million tons over the same period last year.
There is a lack of good supply and demand. Some polyester factories in the downstream promote sales, and the overall production and sales are not prosperous. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are 100%-150%, and some better factories reach 170%. The overall inventory is concentrated in 24-36 days. In terms of prices, the price of polyester filament factories is temporarily stable, and the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces polyester POY (150D/48F) reported 5100-5350 yuan/ton. In terms of operating rate, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell slightly to around 91%.
SunSirs analysts believe that the current crude oil fluctuates at a high level, PTA accumulates inventory, the market is cautious, and the overall demand is tepid. It is expected that the PTA market will have a risk of falling in the later period.
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