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SunSirs: Crude Oil Rebound is Good for Market Mentality, China's PTA Price Rises Slightly
September 17 2020 07:54:50SunSirs(Linda)

According to SunSirs price monitoring, the domestic PTA spot market price rose slightly on September 16. The average spot market price of the day was 3,503 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous trading day and down 33.31% year-on-year. PTA main futures (2101) closed up, and the main futures closed at 3,660, up 22, or 0.60%, from the previous trading day.

Recent changes in domestic PTA devices

In terms of PTA equipment, Reignwood Petrochemical’s 1.4 million tons of PTA equipment began to reduce the load by 50% today (September 16), and overhaul the other half of the production capacity. It is expected to maintain for about a week, and the PTA price will be supported to some extent. However, the restart of the 2.2 million tons of PTA equipment of Yisheng Ningbo is imminent, and the new production capacity is also planned to be put into operation. The surplus is expected to continue to put pressure on it.

In the raw material market, the impact of the hurricane on the rebound of crude oil is positive for the market mentality. As of September 16, the closing price of international crude oil WTI was US$38.28/barrel, an increase of US$1.02/barrel from the previous trading day; the closing price of BRENT was US$40.53/barrel, compared with the previous trading day Up 0.92 US dollars/barrel. Dongying Weilian’s 1 million tons/year PX new device officially produced qualified products on September 15, and the load is steadily increasing. The short-term PX market price is expected to be weak.

The overall high production and sales of downstream polyester is difficult to sustain. The production and sales of major polyester filament filament factories are 50%-70%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 110%. In terms of inventory, the overall polyester market inventory is concentrated in 33-43 days, of which POY inventory is 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-34 days, and DTY inventory is around 31-43 days. The factory quotation was basically stable, and the discount was cancelled. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) was quoted at 5,000-5,250 yuan/ton.

In the terminal traditional textile market, the delivery of some fabrics has become smooth recently. The sales of polyester-nylon, nylon and cotton creative fashion fabrics have gradually increased. The number of spot transactions in mid-to-high-end varieties has increased, and the subscriptions are mostly small batches of multiple varieties. The overall market trend Partly smoothly, market confidence gradually recovered, textile enterprises' orders began to improve, and the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained above 73%.

SunSirs analysts believe that the cost of PTA will be supported by the increase in crude oil, but currently some of its own installations are planned to restart, and downstream polyester production and sales are not good, the market trading atmosphere is flat, and it remains to be seen whether the terminal consumption capacity can continue to increase. . It is expected that the short-term PTA market will fluctuate and run weakly, and the market outlook still needs to pay attention to the changes in crude oil and equipment.

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