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SunSirs: Crude Oil Rebound is not Strong, PTA Price Fluctuations are Weak
May 12 2020 08:32:23SunSirs(Linda)

According to SunSirs price monitoring, the domestic PTA spot market price fell slightly. The average market price on May 11 was 3,381 yuan / ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day and down 49.54% year-on-year. The main contract futures (2009) ended in shock and fell to close at 3,488, which was a decrease of 22 or 0.63% from the previous trading day.

Due to the drop in crude oil, PTA buying was dominated by traders and polyester factories. The spot market trading atmosphere declined, and the inventory was still in the accumulation cycle. In terms of installation, the operating load remained at a high level near 92%. Shanghai Petrochemical plans to enter maintenance on May 16. Currently, Jialong Petrochemical, Pengwei Petrochemical, Liwan New Materials and Tianjin Petrochemical are still in the parking stage. The factory's profitability is good, and the maintenance plan all have been delayed.

The downstream polyester market, the production and sales volume brought by the downstream stocking and fund bottoming around Qingming and May 1st, effectively alleviated the pressure of high inventory. The short-term polyester construction performance was relatively stable, the factory has no clear maintenance and restart plan. A few factories’ intention to increase load storage, start to maintain around 84%. At present, the prices of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are stable, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The enthusiasm for purchases has significantly cooled, and the transaction atmosphere is mainly light. Among them, polyester POY (150D / 48F) reported 5,400-5,550 yuan / ton.

The weaving end is the most direct response to changes in terminal demand. The weaving start-up load began to fall in late March, and there was a large-scale parking holiday during the Ching Ming Festival. The operating rate was lowered to around 40%. At the same time, affected by this public health incident, foreign trade companies still face many difficulties such as cancellation or extension of orders, difficulties in signing new orders, and poor logistics. From January to April 2020, textile and apparel exports totaled 66.62 billion U.S. dollars, down 10%, of which textile exports were 37.31 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.9%, and apparel exports were 29.31 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.3%. In April, driven by the export of masks and other epidemic prevention products, China's textile exports were US $ 14.62 billion, a substantial increase of 51.06% year-on-year; clothing exports were US $ 6.74 billion, a decrease of 27.7%.

SunSirs analysts believe that due to the collapse of crude oil demand, the global crude oil surplus has caused a serious shortage of storage capacity. Although OPEC + and US crude oil have production cuts, the pressure on crude oil surplus may not be eased in the short term. The sustained rebound drive is not strong. At the same time, there are not many maintenance expectation devices for PTA, the starting load remains high, and the downstream polyester load continues to increase the pressure. The supply pressure of PTA still exists. High inventory may become the normal state of PTA. Therefore, on the whole, the possibility of weak adjustment of PTA price fluctuation is greater.

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