Price trend

According to the monitoring of the price of SunSirs, the ex-factory price of urea in Shandong this week rose first and then fell. The quotation first rose from 1,813.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 1,816.67 RMB/ton on March 11, an increase of 0.18%. Later it fell to 1,813.33 RMB/ton on the weekend, a year-on-year decrease of 5.49%. On the whole, the urea market has consolidated at a high level this week, and the urea commodity index on March 13 was 84.34.

Analysis review   

Product: The mainstream urea prices in Shandong in this week have risen and fallen. Yangmei Pingyuan’s urea was quoted at 1,790 RMB/ton this weekend, and the offer was temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing’s urea was quoted at 1,810 RMB/ton on the weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell by 10 RMB/ton; Mingshui Chemical Urea was quoted at 1,840 RMB/ton on the weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer has increased by 10 RMB/ton.

Market demand: The current domestic market is mainly volatile. The demand for agriculture has been reduced, and the downstream industries have to make up for the dips. On the supply side: At present, the start of urea companies continues to rise, the overall supply has increased, and the logistics and transportation are normal, and the inventory pressure has eased, but the downstream manufacturers are less motivated to purchase. The short-term urea market is expected to be mainly volatile.

Industrial chain: The upstream products as a whole appear to have risen significantly: the price of natural gas rose slightly, and the quotation rose from 3,136.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 3,180.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.38%, a year-on-year decrease of 20.37%; The price of liquid ammonia has increased significantly this week, with the offer price increasing from 29.167 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 3,250.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 11.43%, a year-on-year increase of 2.52%. On the whole, urea cost support is strong this week. However, this week's melamine downstream urea offer is temporarily stable at 5,933.33 RMB/ton, and the downstream procurement capacity is average, which has a negative impact on the urea price. The downstream rubber sheet factory is also less enthusiastic about urea procurement.

Market outlook

In mid-March, the urea market in Shandong area may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of SunSirs believe that current agricultural demand is weak, and downstream industries are less enthusiastic about urea procurement. At present, the domestic market is not very favorable, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will mainly fluctuate slightly.

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