Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise, and spot prices of various brands have been adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12,450 RMB/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 2.36% compared to the beginning of the month.
Supply level: Last week, the domestic ABS industry took on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods.
Cost factor: In recent times, the overall trend of ABS upstream materials has maintained the previous pattern, with the acrylonitrile market continuing to rise. The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have risen, and the cost support for acrylonitrile is strong; After the load of the acrylonitrile unit decreased in the early stage, the supply side declined, and there has been no news of resuming work recently. The main enterprises have actively increased prices, forming supplier support for acrylonitrile; The overall downstream consumption situation is mainly based on demand, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate mainly in the high range in the future.
Last week, the domestic butadiene market remained strong at a high level. The external market prices are high, and some sources of goods are trading overseas orders during the export window period. At the same time, some auction sources sold at a premium to support spot prices. Domestic production has rebounded narrowly, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene is not significant. The consumption of downstream major industries is average, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.
The styrene market remained positive last week. In the early stage, the inventory of styrene at the port was digested smoothly, but in recent times, both supply and demand have increased, and market momentum has increased. The inflow of funds into the market has had an impact, leading to an increase in bullish sentiment among businesses. At the same time, costs have not yet moved away from the high support position, and it is expected that styrene may still rise in the future.
In terms of demand: Recently, the main terminal demand for ABS has remained stable, and the overall factory load has remained stable with minor fluctuations. The stocking operation is mainly focused on buying in demand. The current low-end supply in the market is decreasing, and traders are actively reporting high. Considering the high rise in ABS prices, buyers are gradually showing resistance to high-end supply. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side is helping to stabilize the market.
The current domestic ABS prices are maintaining a high and rising trend. From a fundamental perspective, the upstream momentum of ABS's three materials has not weakened, and it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a high level in the future, with a strong expectation for the cost support level of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. Due to the high price range of ABS, it has affected some stocking consumption. The current demand side just needs to enter the market, and the support for spot goods is gradual. Technically speaking, the probability of the 7-day line crossing the 30-day line in the short term is relatively small, and the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs indicates that the probability of ABS maintaining a strong market in the future is higher. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the trend of demand.
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