According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha continued to rise in April. As of April 16, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8,579.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.20% from April 1's 8,394.00 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 8,500-8,700 RMB/ton. The market for ground refined straight run naphtha continues to rise. As of April 16, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8,504.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.66% from April 1's 8,284.00 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha is around 8,400-8,600 RMB/ton. Recently, the downstream demand for ethylene in the naphtha market has remained weak, with market trading mainly focused on ground refining and reforming. The related gasoline market has performed well, and refineries are actively driving up prices.
Upstream: International crude oil continues to operate at high levels, and it is not ruled out that it may continue to rise after later adjustments. This is mainly due to the unresolved supply side risks and the difficulty in cooling down geopolitical conflicts. Moreover, the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States will stimulate gasoline demand. Both supply and demand will provide strong support for oil prices.
Downstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the toluene market continued to rise in April, with international crude oil prices fluctuating at high levels, supporting the cost of toluene. In addition, there are maintenance plans for toluene plants in the near future, and the supply of toluene is expected to continue to decline; The domestic xylene market has sufficient spot supply, and the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high recently. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%, and the domestic xylene market prices are mainly stable.
Future forecast: The international crude oil market is at a high level, supporting the domestic naphtha market; At present, the terminal trading of refined naphtha is limited, and the relevant gasoline market is performing positively. In addition, some refined enterprises are currently mainly shut down for maintenance and self use, and the pressure on refineries is limited. With high support, it is expected that the refined naphtha market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the near future.
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