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SunSirs: Improvement of Demand, PTA Stop Decline but Rebound
March 05 2020 09:52:00SunSirs(Linda)

According to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, the PTA spot market rebounded slightly on March 4, with an average price of 4,268 RMB/ton, up 0.42% compared with the previous trading day, down 35.5% year on year. Main futures were adjusted to close at 4,368, up 10% or 0.23% from the previous trading day.

Company

Capacity (10,000t/y)

Recent changes

Sichuan Energy Investment

100

Current load is about 80%, and the device shut down for maintenance on December 29, 2019.

Ningbo Taihua

120

At present, the device is in full load production, and the load of the device is 70% on February 27.

Shanghai Petrochemical

40

Down to 60%

Tianjin Petrochemical

34

Down to 70%

Luoyang Petrochemical

32.5

Down to 50%

Hengli Petrochemical

250

On February 15, the load of 2.5 million tons of new equipment was increased to 90%

Fu Hai Chuang

450

On February 15, the load was increased to 80%

In terms of supply, PTA plant restart and load reduction coexist. Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. normally discharges the 1 million ton/year PTA plant after restart on March 3. It is necessary to pay attention to whether Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million ton/year PTA plant is maintained as planned. At present, the domestic operating rate is around 81%, and the overall operating rate is still high. Since February, the accumulated storage pressure has continued. Up to now, PTA social circulation inventory has exceeded 2 million tons, which is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand.

However, in the near future, the price of crude oil has been rising, and the cost side has been boosted to a certain extent. At the same time, the comprehensive load of downstream polyester plant is around 66%. With the introduction of resumption policies and government support policies, the start-up has shown a slow upward trend, and the demand side has seen a positive trend. On March 4, the price of polyester filament mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was temporarily stable, with individual increase of 50 RMB/ton, of which the price of polyester POY (150D/48F) was 6,600-6,750 RMB/ton.

Analysts of SunSirs believe that with the gradual recovery of market demand, supply and demand will improve in the later period, and PTA will continue to rebound due to the improvement of cost and demand in the short term. However, this year is the big year for PTA production capacity. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be as high as 30%. In the context of production capacity delivery cycle, PTA is highly limited, and the trend will still be weak in the future.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

8 Industries
Energy
Chemical
Rubber & Plastics
Textile
Non-ferrous Metals
Steel
Building Materials
Agricultural & Sideline Products