According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has continued to decline after the Spring Festival. As of February 26, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1,670.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.61% from 1,732.50 RMB/ton on February 18.

Cost side: After the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market fluctuated and declined. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; On the other hand, the Gaza ceasefire negotiations suppress the risk premium of crude oil; In addition, the total number of oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States has increased to the highest level since August 2023, and the implementation of OPEC's production reduction is not optimistic, which has suppressed oil prices. The combined influence of bullish and bearish factors has led to a mainly fluctuating downward trend in the international oil price range during this cycle.

Supply side: Affected by widespread rain and snow weather after the Spring Festival, transportation and logistics have been hindered, and the local refined petroleum coke market has had weak transactions, with prices continuing to decline; At present, downstream enterprises have a low enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the local refining petroleum coke market is under pressure for shipments, with refineries reducing prices for shipments.

On the demand side: As of February 22, China has started operating 308 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall furnace opening rate of 41.1%, an increase of 1 furnace compared to last week. This week, the situation of industrial silicon furnace opening has stabilized, and the market is still in the post holiday recovery period. Enterprises are basically starting production according to the pre holiday scale, and the number of starts will gradually increase. The supply is expected to increase this week. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

After the Spring Festival, the stability of medium sulfur calcined coke is the main trend, with average shipments. Downstream demand release is relatively slow, and the operation of the calcined coke market is cautious.

After the Spring Festival, aluminum prices fluctuated downward, and downstream purchasing sentiment was relatively negative. However, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream demand may gradually recover, and the production capacity and operating rate of leading enterprises in China's aluminum downstream industry are expected to rise. The demand for petroleum coke from aluminum based carbon enterprises is still acceptable.

International crude oil prices will fluctuate downward, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment in the petroleum coke market; At present, the widespread rainy and snowy weather has ended, and logistics and transportation have basically resumed. However, downstream post holiday restocking has gradually ended, and the overall demand in the downstream is limited, with rigid demand being the main focus. It is expected that the local petroleum coke market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

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