According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal fluctuated within a range in November. On November 29th, the energy index was 1,014 points, an increase of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.04% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 98.43% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
The price of thermal coal has risen and fallen this month, but overall it fluctuates within a certain range. At the end of the month, the safety inspection of coal mines in the production area continued to exert pressure, and towards the end of the month, some coal mines experienced production stoppages, leading to a tightening of coal supply. At present, prices in the port are mainly weak. Although the daily consumption of downstream power plants has increased, under long-term stable supply, the inventory and available days of power plants are still at a high level. There is some demand downstream, but there is a phenomenon of price pressure downstream, and the overall situation is in a stalemate.
On the 27th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to October 2023, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a revenue of 107.78 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The operating revenue of the mining industry was RMB 5000.82 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, the coal mining and washing industry realized an operating income of 2,872.14 billion RMB, down 14.1% year on year. From January to October, industrial enterprises above designated size in China achieved a total profit of 6,115.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, which is 1.2 percentage points narrower than that of January to September (calculated according to comparable standards). The mining industry achieved a total profit of 1,114.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. Among them, the total profit of coal mining and washing industry was 652.06 billion RMB, down 26.6% year on year.
SunSirs analysts believe that the overall supply of coal mines is limited due to safety inspections affecting the production area. In terms of downstream ports, although there has been a certain increase in downstream demand due to weather conditions, the downstream maintains a wait-and-see attitude. Although there is a certain demand, the market is in a stalemate on the basis of long-term coal supply guarantee. It is expected that short-term consolidation of thermal coal will be the main operation, and the specific situation will depend on downstream market demand.
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