According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall trend of natural rubber has risen after the holiday. The spot rubber market in China was around 13,250 RMB/ton on October 17th and around 12,700 RMB/ton on October 9th, an increase of 4.33%.

Influencing factors:

1. Port inventory continues to decline due to output constraints

On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production area is affected by more periodic rainfall. The rainfall in Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas is still high, which hinders the production of raw materials; The rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan production areas is repeated, and local glue production is hindered. The prices of raw materials continue to rise, supported by the cost of natural rubber. The Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and inventory continues to decline. In addition, overseas factories have delayed shipping schedules, resulting in a relatively small number of mixed domestic standard adhesives arriving at the port, with a majority of deliveries arriving at the port, which has a certain boosting effect on the Tianjiao market.

2. The operating rate of tire enterprises is gradually returning to pre holiday levels

On the demand side, the production schedule of rubber tire manufacturers is gradually returning to pre holiday levels, and the operating rate of tire processing plants is gradually increasing. The domestic and foreign sales orders of semi steel tire enterprises are sufficient, the operating rate continues to increase, the shipment is average, and the enterprise inventory has slightly increased; The operating rate of all steel tires has increased, and prices have increased. Currently, the main focus is on destocking.

Recent rainfall in Thailand has hindered the production of raw materials, led to a continuous increase in acquisition prices, and supported by natural rubber costs. At present, the export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factory operations continue to resume after the holiday. During the peak season, the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. In addition, the futures market rose in the early stage, resulting in high prices of natural rubber. It is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to show an upward trend in the near future.

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