Recently (from September 11th to September 19th), the spot market for BR has slightly increased, with the increase narrowing compared to early September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 19th, the market price of BR in East China was 13840 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.06% from last Monday's 13,560 RMB/ton.
Firstly, the price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, with strong cost support for BR. Secondly, the recent maintenance of Sichuan Petrochemical's BR plant has reduced the supply of BR. Finally, stable downstream construction requires support from the superimposed market inventory at a medium to low level. During the supply cycle of BR, the price will continue to increase by 700 RMB/ton, and the domestic BR market merchants' quotations will follow the trend. As of September 19th, the mainstream prices in the domestic BR market are 13,400-14,200 RMB/ton.
The industry's construction started slightly lower, and supply pressure has eased. On September 11th, Haopu New Materials and other BR units were restarted, and on September 15th, Sichuan Petrochemical's BR unit was shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slightly tight supply of BR. Recently (September 11th to September 19th), the butadiene market has continued to rise, and the cost support for BR has continued to strengthen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 19th, the price of butadiene was 8,747 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.80% from last Monday's 8,592 RMB/ton.
Demand side: In early September, the tire operating rate was basically stable, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of mid September 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%. Stacking the upstream and merchant stocking in the early stage of the double section provides certain support for BR.
SunSirs analysts believe that the price of BR raw materials is running at a high level, and there is not much supply pressure. In addition, with the support of downstream demand, it is expected that the spot market of BR will remain at a high level in the short term.
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