On Thursday night trading, BR2401 opened at 12,250 RMB/ton, with a significant increase in intraday trading. It closed at 13,295 RMB/ton on the limit up board, with an increase of 9.47%. The closing price has increased by 23.67% compared to the opening price of 10,750 RMB/ton on the first day of listing on July 28th.
Since the listing of BR futures one month ago, the spot market of BR has also shown a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 31, the market price of BR in East China was 11,970 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.53% from 10,830 RMB/ton on July 28. In August, the factory price of two barrels of oil BR was gradually increased by 900 RMB/ton. As of August 31, the factory price of Daqing BR of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11,800 RMB/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of domestic BR was between 11700 and 12,200 RMB/ton.
Supply side: In mid August, Shunding devices such as Qilu, Heze Xinke, and Taiwan Rubber Ube will be shut down for maintenance. Among them, Heze Xinke and Taiwan Rubber Ube Shunding devices will be restarted in late August; The Shandong Yihua BR plant was put into operation at reduced load in late August. The overall construction of BR in August slightly decreased.
Since the end of July, the butadiene market has been rising, and the cost center of BR has continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 7,626 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.90% from 7,201 RMB/ton on July 28. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, bringing a certain boost to the cost side. At the same time, some downstream product prices rose, and there was some support for the market demand side. Merchants' expectations for demand were stronger, combined with the strong offer for distant cargo in the outer market, resulting in a high market atmosphere; At the end of the month, the prices of butadiene in various sales companies of Sinopec, the main production enterprise, were increased to 7,600 RMB/ton. Shandong Weite Plant continues to be shut down, while Zhejiang Petrochemical 3# Plant is shut down for maintenance. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.
Since the end of July, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating, but the speed of inventory removal at the end of the month has accelerated, providing some support for natural rubber and BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 31st, the price was at 12,090 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 11,960 RMB/ton on July 28th, and the low point during the cycle was at 11,764 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, the speed of natural rubber inventory destocking has increased rapidly. As of August 25, 2023, it is understood that the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 824,400 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from 926,000 tons on July 23 and a decrease of 70,000 tons from 895,100 tons on August 20.
Demand side: The tire operating rate in August slightly increased compared to July, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.
Recently, rubber prices have continued to rise, especially with a significant increase in rubber prices on August 31st. This is mainly due to the support of industry chain fundamentals such as rapid inventory decline and high cost levels; On the other hand, it is stimulated by rumors of large capital hoarding and the continuous rise of Japanese glue. Driven by multiple factors, rubber prices have surged significantly.
SunSirs analysts believe that the price of BR raw materials is running high, and there is not much supply pressure. Coupled with the support of natural rubber destocking, it is expected that the spot market of BR will remain strong in the short term. If the market rubber inventory continues to rapidly decline, the spot price of BR will continue to rise.
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