According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall operation of thermal coal is on a wait-and-see basis. On July 25th, the energy index stood at 942 points, an increase of 5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.65% from the highest point of 1,561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and an increase of 84.34% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)
In terms of production area, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, while state-owned large mines actively guarantee supply, and the overall supply is relatively stable. Due to the recent average overall transaction volume, some coal mines have lowered their prices to stimulate transportation.
In terms of downstream ports, recent transactions in the port market have been limited, and the overall market sentiment is wait-and-see, with average trading volume. With the hot weather and the arrival of peak summer, the daily consumption of the power plant has accelerated. However, due to the recent impact of typhoons, the increase in daily consumption is limited, and the overall inventory is still in a high state due to the prolonged supply of coal. Traders are cautious and cautious, and although they are actively shipping, inquiries are still relatively low.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, coal prices across the country showed an upward trend in mid July, but the increase was not significant. The specific price changes of various coals are as follows: the price of Anthracite (washing block, volatile matter≤8%) is 1192.1 RMB/ton, up 7.9/ton or 0.7% from the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 658.9 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.2 RMB/ton or 1.4% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 758.3 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.7 RMB/ton or 1.3% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 859.0 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.4 RMB/ton or 1.2% compared to the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal with sulfur content<1%) was 1771.4 RMB/ton, an increase of 96.4 RMB/ton or 5.8% compared to the previous period. It can be seen from the above data that in the middle of July, the prices of thermal coal and Anthracite continued to rise slightly, and coking coal also showed a relatively obvious rise.
SunSirs analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mine maintains normal production in terms of origin and overall supply is basically stable. In terms of downstream ports, power plants generally maintain high inventory, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will rise weakly in the later stage, and the main focus will be on consolidation and operation, depending on the downstream market demand.
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