According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was relatively strong last week. On July 20th, the energy index stood at 929 points, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.49% from the cycle's highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 81.80% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the overall supply remains stable. Due to the recent price increase in the downstream port market, there has been an increase in coal hauling vehicles at the pit mouth, and there is currently no inventory pressure on the overall coal mine.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices tend to be relatively strong. With the hot weather and the arrival of peak summer, the daily consumption of power plants is accelerating, and prices are relatively firm supported by seasonal demand. However, traders are cautious and cautious, and downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the overall price of coal nationwide increased from July 10th to 16th, with thermal coal, coking coal, and No.2 anthracite lump coal increasing by 1.2%, 0.8%, and 0.4%, respectively, at 824 RMB, 1,234 RMB, and 1,291 RMB per ton. Steel prices have slightly declined, with threaded steel, high-speed wire rod, and channel steel costing 3,925 RMB, 4,146 RMB, and 4,244 RMB per ton, respectively, decreasing by 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.5%.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mine maintains normal production in terms of origin and overall supply is basically stable. In terms of downstream ports, due to the recent hot weather, there has been an increase in demand for power plants during peak summer. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand, but now market confidence is good. Overall, the upward trend of coal prices is expected to be mainly driven by the upward trend of thermal coal prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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