Price trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, on the 6th, the average price of nickel spot market was 217,950 RMB/ton, down 4.44% from the previous trading day and up 28.36% year on year.

Analysis review

The US dollar strengthened, while the internal metal suffered setbacks and fell. Last week, London nickel futures plunged 5.13%; Nickel production capacity was released, the market supply was sufficient, nickel inventory increased slightly, and some downstream enterprises were more active in stocking, purchasing increased, and spot transactions increased significantly. However, some terminal enterprises had not yet recovered, and it was expected that they would almost return to normal at the weekend.

In January 2023, a total of 29 ships were delivered from Philippine nickel mines, totaling about 1.5 million wet tons, a decrease of 21.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. After the rainy season in Surigo, the Philippines, the shipment volume is at the low point of the year, and is expected to recover at the end of the first quarter. At present, there are 6 nickel iron vessels loading/waiting for loading in Indonesia's main ports, which is 33.33% lower than that of the previous period.

Downstream, the production of stainless steel and nickel sulfate was at a low level in February and slightly recovered. There was still a certain demand for alloy electroplating.

Market outlook

In February, the dominant inventory of refined nickel in the world is still at a historical low, and the price rise elasticity is relatively large under the status of low inventory and low warehouse receipt. At present, the nickel futures price is still dominated by the capital game, and the nickel price may still maintain a high and wide fluctuation before the apparent recovery of the dominant inventory.

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