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Ruida Futures: The Oil Market is Volatile, Rapeseed Meal Turbulence Closes down

November 10 2020 08:38:09     SunSirs (Linda)

Disk situation: The rapeseed contract transaction is deserted and it is not suitable for operation. Rapeseed meal 2101 contract -2.49%, the highest future price was 2,579 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,510 yuan/ton; transaction volume was 766,185 contracts, open interest was 301,131 contracts, and -55,526 contracts; RM1-5 monthly spread -29 yuan/ton, -19 yuan/ton. Vegetable oil 2101 contract-2.39%, the highest price of the futures price was 9,818 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9,476 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,554 yuan/ton; transaction volume was 841,028 contracts, open interest was 160,062 contracts, and -15,887 contracts; RMB/ton, +18 RMB/ton.

Market quotation: According to the data of the world granary, the spot price of imported rapeseed oil (including imported rapeseed pressing) is 10,073 yuan/ton, -232 yuan/ton, and the spot of rapeseed meal is 2,500 yuan/ton, -64 yuan/ton.

Daily warehouse receipts: 1,350 warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil, plus 0 for the day, 200 valid forecasts; 841 warehouse receipts for rapeseed meal, -142 for the same day, and 0 valid forecasts.

Position changes: the top 20 long positions of rapeseed oil mainstream funds reported 149,805 hands, +3,072 hands, the top 20 short positions reported 170,273 hands, -5,017 hands, and the net position was -20,468. Long positions increased, and future prices increased; rapeseed meal The top 20 long positions of mainstream funds reported 311,429 lots and -38,771 lots, and the top 20 short positions reported 338,878 lots and -27,679 lots. The long and short positions of mainstream funds decreased simultaneously, indicating that the market is competing for long and short positions, and futures prices fluctuate.

News: In the week ending November 6, Canadian rapeseed futures under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.6%, mainly boosted by the strong rise in Chicago soybeans and soybean oil futures. As of the close on the 6th, the January rapeseed period rose about 3.30 Canadian dollars to close at 545.90 Canadian dollars/ton.

Summary: Technically, the rapeseed contract is lightly traded and trading is not recommended. As for rapeseed meal, domestic rapeseed meal futures fell sharply on the 9th. South American soybean production may be reduced due to the La Nina weather, coupled with strong demand for US soybeans, may support future US soybean futures prices, driving the domestic meal market, but due to the bearish USDA expectations, US soybean futures prices fell from high levels, supporting the meal on Monday Significantly weakened, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The situation of China-Canada relations remains unchanged, affecting the import volume of rapeseed, the amount of rapeseed crush is not large, and the supply of rapeseed meal is still tight in the short term. However, my country's aquaculture has gradually entered the off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal has declined, which has prevented the stagnation and callback of rapeseed meal prices. Rapeseed meal prices are expected to maintain a shock adjustment trend. Technically, the 2101 contract for rapeseed meal was under pressure at the 2,600 mark and quickly pulled back, but the volatile upward trend has not been destroyed. Pay attention to the strong support at 2,450 yuan/ton. Operational: it is recommended to do more in the 2,470-2,490 yuan/ton range and stop loss at 2,450 yuan / ton.

Vegetable oil: The oil market fluctuated greatly on the 9th. Affected by the La Nina weather and the epidemic restrictions, Malaysian palm oil reduced its inventory to the lowest level in three years. In October, it decreased by 9.8% from the previous month. The demand for export volume was good, the market supply was tightening, and international crude oil prices rose. Domestic and foreign palm oil prices were supported. , Indirectly support the price of rapeseed oil. In addition, the tension between China and Canada has not improved, the import volume of rapeseed is limited, the operating rate of rapeseed oil has rebounded slightly, but the delivery speed is fast, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is tight; in addition, the domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the operating rate rebounded slightly last week. Demand is good and soybean oil stocks continue to decline. Palm oil arrivals increased and inventories rebounded slightly, and the overall situation remained low. There is no pressure on the oil supply, which supports the overall maintenance of vegetable oil at a high level. Technically, the short-term support level of OI101 is RMB 9,400/ton. In operation, the OI101 contract is short-term and long-traded every callback. The reference point is RMB 9,450-9,500/ton, and the stop loss is RMB 9,400/ton.

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