SunSirs: China MTBE Market Is Experiencing Strong Fluctuations in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market experienced strong fluctuations in September. From September 1st to 29th, MTBE prices rose from 5,007 RMB/ton to 5,050 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.85% during the period and a maximum amplitude of 3.39%. The price decreased by 9.13% year-on-year.

After entering September, the domestic MTBE market mostly maintained a sideways consolidation, with little room for price fluctuations. International crude oil continues to rise and terminal operators are replenishing their inventories in moderation, supported by favorable factors, resulting in strong price performance. In the latter half of the month, market prices slightly fell, and the phased replenishment of inventory by industry players came to an end. As the end of the month approached, there was a demand for manufacturers to stock up, and the market saw a narrow and weak consolidation due to mutual competition.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices are showing an upward trend. In the first ten days, the market was concerned that OPEC+ would launch a new production increase plan, increasing the risk of oversupply and causing a decline in international oil prices. In the middle of the month, the uncertainty of the Russia Ukraine situation still exists, and the United States has stated that it reserves the option of imposing sanctions on Russia, leading to an increase in international oil prices. In the last ten days, the strength of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was strengthened, the market was worried about the potential supply risk, and the international oil price rose.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, after the National Day holiday, businesses may have a certain demand for purchasing as their inventory is depleted, but it is expected to be difficult to sustain. Demand will gradually weaken in the middle and late stages, and businesses may maintain a strong demand for related gasoline raw materials procurement. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a plan to start production for the previously shut down equipment. Xinrui Chemical, Huangshi TianRMB, and others will start production one after another. Sanjiang Petrochemical may have the possibility of starting new equipment, and some large manufacturers may have dehydrogenation equipment for maintenance. Overall, there is a narrow expectation of an increase in MTBE resource supply. The overall domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on September 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $4.06/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $677.97-679.97/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $21.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $872.99-873.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $12.07 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $845.84-846.20 per ton (238.83-238.93 cents per gallon).

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand, and MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market situation may mainly consolidate.

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